What the candidates get right — and wrong
The main Republican presidential candidates – most of them, no less than – are on stage tonight in Milwaukee for his or her first debate forward of the 2024 main.
Observe alongside right here with the USA TODAY Fact Check Team as we dig into candidates’ claims and add context on anticipated marketing campaign themes, together with election fraud, the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, the battle in Ukraine and extra.
Former President Donald Trump’s decision to skip the debate means eight candidates will take part, together with Trump’s former vp, Mike Pence, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, extensively seen as Trump’s most formidable challenger. The opposite candidates anticipated on the talk stage are North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Republican debate reside updates: GOP primary candidates take stage − without Donald Trump
Here is some background from our archives on key subjects we count on to see by way of the marketing campaign and maybe tonight:
Declare: 11 European nations have given extra support to Ukraine when it comes to GDP than the U.S.
Claimed by Nikki Haley
Whereas outlining why she would proceed giving support to Ukraine, Haley claimed that 11 European nations have given extra when it comes to GDP than the U.S. That is true.
The Kiel Institute for the World Financial system’s Ukraine Support Tracker exhibits that whereas the U.S. has offered by far essentially the most help to Ukraine when it comes to {dollars}, with greater than $75 billion committed, that solely equates to about 0.3% of complete U.S. gross home product (GDP).
Practically a dozen European countries have offered extra when it comes to GDP. They embody Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Denmark, Netherlands, Finland, Czech Republic, Norway and the U.Okay. Estonia leads the best way and has offered help that equates to about 1.3% of its GDP.
-Brad Sylvester
Declare: DOJ labels faculty mother and father ‘home terrorists’
Tim Scott: “We hold seeing not solely the weaponization of the Division of Justice towards political opponents, but in addition towards mother and father who present up at college board conferences. They’re referred to as home terrorists.”
That is false and mischaracterizes an alternate beginning with a September 2021 letter written to Lawyer Common Merrick Garland by an schooling group asking the federal authorities to assist with threats of violence towards faculty officers.
The letter from the Nationwide Faculty Boards Affiliation claimed that a few of these threats “might be the equal to a type of home terrorism.” The group later apologized for its phrase selection.
Garland didn’t use that phrase in his response.
As a substitute, he mentioned the rise in harassment, intimidation and threats of violence towards faculty officers and directed the FBI to fulfill with leaders throughout the nation to speak about methods to cope with these threats.
Learn extra:
– Joedy McCreary
Declare: Florida’s crime fee is at a 50-year low
Ron DeSantis: “Crime is at a 50-year low in Florida.”
That is deceptive. DeSantis has made the declare earlier than, nevertheless it’s based mostly on incomplete knowledge, based on The Marshall Project, a information group that covers felony justice points.
About half of the legislation enforcement businesses that police greater than 40% of Florida’s inhabitants aren’t included in statewide crime statistics. Lower than 10% of the state’s police departments had been included in a federal crime database.
In Miami, the state’s second-most populous metropolis, violent crime has declined up to now this 12 months, with murders down more than 30%, based on WTVJ/NBC 6, an area tv information station.
Learn extra:
-Chris Mueller
The declare: Hunter Biden was charged with a gun crime that had a 10-year necessary minimal
Claimed by Chris Christie
That is inaccurate. Hunter Biden was charged in June by the U.S. Attorney for the District of Delaware with one depend of illegal possession of a firearm by an individual prohibited. The charge claims the president’s son possessed a firearm whereas “realizing that he was an illegal consumer of and hooked on a managed substance” in October 2018.
If convicted Hunter Biden would face a maximum penalty of 10 years in jail, not a minimal, based on the U.S. lawyer’s workplace.
Listed here are a couple of of the opposite Hunter Biden-related claims we’ve beforehand addressed:
-Brad Sylvester, Chris Mueller
Declare: Hutchinson reduce Arkansas workforce by 14%
Asa Hutchinson: “We had 14% fewer state workers in Arkansas after I left authorities than once I took over as governor eight years in the past.”
This is not fairly proper based on state figures. It is a variation on a declare Hutchinson has made earlier than. In asserting his presidential bid in April, he stated he reduce the state’s government workforce by 14%, KARK-TV reported.
There have been practically 3,000 fewer workers within the government department of the state’s authorities when he left workplace in 2023 than there have been when he took workplace in 2015, the El Dorado Information-Occasions reported in January.
That workforce complete fell from 26,108 in 2015 to 23,111 earlier this 12 months, based on the newspaper. However that works out to a drop of simply over 11% – not the 14% he claimed.
– Joedy McCreary
Declare: Florida’s COVID-19 insurance policies ‘led the nation’
Ron DeSantis: “We led the nation out of lockdown.”
That is deceptive. It ignores the truth that Florida’s lack of lockdowns led to more than 86,000 deaths and a loss of life fee that was among the highest within the nation.
In April 2020, DeSantis did problem a safer-at-home order, however by the tip of the month, he introduced that many of the state may begin its reopening process. DeSantis issued another order months later that claimed Florida “suffered financial hurt because of COVID-19 associated closures.”
DeSantis has extra lately pushed lawmakers to make state bans on vaccine passports and masks necessities everlasting.
Learn extra:
We’ve beforehand debunked quite a few claims stemming from the Sunshine State:
-Chris Mueller
Declare: Bidenomics value $10,000 spending energy per household
Tim Scott: “Joe Biden’s Bidenomics has result in the lack of $10,000 of spending energy for the common household.”
Whereas there are a variety of the way to look at common spending energy, two financial experiences present Scott is kind of appropriate.
A latest report from Casey Mulligan, a professor of economics on the College of Chicago, discovered that Biden administration laws have value People about $10,000 per family as of the tip of 2022.
A separate analysis revealed in January by the Heritage Basis, a conservative think-tank, discovered that the common American household has misplaced about $7,400 in annual revenue since Biden took workplace.
-Brad Sylvester
Declare: Local weather change is a ‘hoax’
Vivek Ramaswamy: “The local weather change agenda is a hoax.”
Scientists from all disciplines say local weather change could be very actual and having a really actual impression.
The speed of warming has more than doubled since 1981, rising at a fee of greater than .3 degrees per decade for a complete of practically 2 levels since 1880.
The worldwide warming pattern has resulted in an general improve of practically 2 degrees within the annual world common floor temperature. This quantity of world warming has already brought about consequential environmental changes, together with sea-level rise, decreased sea ice, and adjustments in climate patterns like drought and flooding, based on specialists.
That stage of improve is traditionally important, with the present world warming pattern “occurring at a fee that’s greater than 10 instances larger than seen in historic local weather cycles popping out of ice ages,” Howard Diamond, senior local weather scientist on the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Air Sources Laboratory, beforehand instructed USA TODAY.
World warming causes world sea stage rise as a result of warming ocean water expands. Moreover, melting glaciers and ice sheets have elevated the quantity of water within the oceans.
Learn extra: Timing of ice ages is connected to CO2, but not how this viral post claims | Fact check
Learn extra: Fact check: Experts say extreme weather events are increasing in severity, not decreasing
-Eric Litke
Declare: Donald Trump added $8 trillion to our nationwide debt
Claimed by Nikki Haley
Haley touted this stat in asserting a scarcity of fiscal restraint by Republicans. The determine is appropriate.
Utilizing Treasury Department data, the overall public debt, which incorporates intragovernmental holdings and public debt, elevated by roughly $7.8 trillion from the beginning of Trump’s presidency on Jan. 20, 2017, to when he left workplace on Jan. 19, 2021.
Learn extra: False claim Trump increased debt more than any president | Fact check
–Eric Litke
US support to Ukraine divides Republican candidates
Practically a 12 months and a half after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine started, there stay differing views amongst Republican presidential candidates in terms of persevering with U.S. help for Ukraine’s protection.
Former President Donald Trump, who isn’t on the debate stage, has repeatedly suggested the U.S. is offering an excessive amount of help to Ukraine. He has additionally refused to say whether or not he desires Russia or Ukraine to prevail within the battle.
Ron DeSantis has additionally been skeptical of U.S. support for Ukraine, and Vivek Ramaswamy stated the U.S. has performed sufficient to assist. Mike Pence, who visited Ukraine in June, has stated he supports providing Ukraine with military aid to struggle again towards Russia. Chris Christie too has stated he supports continuing U.S. support for Ukraine, as does Tim Scott and Asa Hutchinson. Nikki Haley stated help needs to be by way of collaborating with allies to make sure Ukraine has “the tools and the ammunition to win.”
Public debate over the very best strategy in Ukraine has additionally sparked a big selection of misinformation:
– Chris Mueller
Jan. 6 riots play key position in Trump, Pence campaigns
The Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots loom giant through the marketing campaign as a result of a number of of that day’s central figures – Trump and Pence – are within the race.
Trump has repeatedly and falsely claimed that Pence had the ability to overturn the 2020 election outcomes whereas he presided over the ceremonial certification course of. Pence has made his dealing with of the day’s occasions a central theme of his marketing campaign, saying he chose loyalty to the Constitution over calls for from Trump to provide him the election.
Within the worst attack on the Capitol in 200 years, a mob of 1000’s of Trump supporters overwhelmed police and raided the constructing on the day lawmakers formalized Biden’s victory. Some rioters chanted that they wanted Pence hanged.
Different candidates have introduced up the assaults, with DeSantis calling it not an insurrection however a “protest” that “ended up devolving, you recognize, in a means that was unlucky.” Ramaswamy blamed the riots on “pervasive censorship” and referred to as it “unproductive” to level the finger at Trump.
The assaults have been a consistent source of misinformation through the previous 2½ years. Listed here are some we’ve beforehand debunked:
– Joedy McCreary
Debate comes amid indictments of Trump, allies
Trump will not be on the talk stage, however the former president looms giant over the talk in gentle of each his commanding lead in the polls and his unprecedented legal troubles.
Most lately, Trump and several allies had been indicted Aug. 14 by a Georgia grand jury that accused them of attempting to overturn his 2020 election loss within the state, the place Trump lost to President Joe Biden by about 12,000 votes.
The fees towards Trump in Georgia are solely the newest in a series of prosecutions towards him that started in March, when he was indicted for allegedly falsifying business records associated to hush-money funds supposed to silence two ladies earlier than the 2016 election. Trump additionally faces expenses for allegedly mishandling classified documents and allegedly conspiring to steal the 2020 presidential election, together with his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection.
Trump’s authorized woes have been the topic of an array of false or deceptive claims on social media:
– Chris Mueller
Election integrity vital problem in GOP race
One key problem for the candidates is whether or not they may belief – and abide by – the elections that may determine the winners and losers.
State-level evaluations of the 2022 midterm elections found no indication of systemic problems with voter fraud, in step with reviews of the 2020 election. That’s important as a result of baseless allegations from Trump and his allies have penetrated the Republican Celebration and eroded confidence within the course of.
A number of candidates have pushed election-related adjustments of their dwelling states.
DeSantis created Florida’s Workplace of Election Crimes and Safety. A 12 months in the past, his administration accused 20 felons ineligible to vote in 2020 of illegally casting ballots and charged them with third-degree felonies.
Haley as governor signed a legislation in 2011 that requires South Carolina voters to show photo ID. Christie vetoed a invoice in 2016 that might routinely register New Jerseyans to vote after they receive or renew their driver’s license, calling it “a cocktail of fraud,” NJ.com reported.
What none of those businesses discovered, after all, is any signal that election outcomes had been compromised or votes had been miscounted. However claims on the contrary have circulated extensively on-line. Listed here are a couple of of our latest debunks:
–Joedy McCreary