NL West 2023 preview: Can Padres topple mighty Dodgers?
The Put up’s Mark W. Sanchez previews the NL West:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
O/U wins: 96.5
Key participant: Max Muncy. If the lefty slugger rediscovers his kind, then the losses of free brokers Trea Turner and Justin Turner will probably be a lot simpler to soak up. Muncy was a peripheral MVP candidate in 2021, however he suffered {a partially} torn UCL on the finish of the season that bled into his 2022 season. He was dreadful via July, hitting simply .161, earlier than he confirmed glimpses of his former self the ultimate two months of final season. A wholesome and hitting Muncy could be dangerous information for the remainder of the division.
Participant who’ll must step up: Miguel Rojas. After Trea Turner left, the shortstop reins had been handed to Gavin Lux, who tore his proper ACL. The Dodgers now will flip to Rojas, a former Marlin, who’s coming off a down 12 months. Can the Dodgers’ prized teaching minds discover one other stage of his recreation?
Title you’ll get to know: James Outman. The outfielder with an unlucky surname is likely one of the younger sluggers on whom the Dodgers are banking. The 25-year-old drilled 31 minor league residence runs final season, made a robust, four-game MLB debut and will catch on with the Dodgers rapidly.
Greatest query mark: Can the youngsters maintain the juggernaut buzzing? The Dodgers, with a top-ranked farm system, allowed gamers such because the Turners, Cody Bellinger, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney to depart, and their replacements are both inside or fliers (together with Noah Syndergaard). Will the Dodgers remorse not importing one other confirmed star?
The way it’ll go down: The Dodgers have gained the division 9 of the previous 10 years and nonetheless have Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith of their lineup. It is going to take a couple of quiet offseason for Dave Roberts’ deep crew to be dethroned.
2. San Diego Padres
O/U wins: 93.5
Key participant: Fernando Tatis Jr. A splashy and star-driven membership nonetheless has main questions with its greatest, homegrown famous person. Tatis has been a pressure every time he has been on the sphere, however he can not take the sphere till April 20 due to a PED suspension, which adopted shoulder and wrist surgical procedures that value him all of 2022. The final time he performed with the Padres, he slammed 42 residence runs in 2021, when he completed third in MVP voting and principally performed shortstop. He’ll return with uncertainty and a brand new place: proper subject.
Participant who’ll must step up: Seth Lugo. Step-ups from pitchers Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez could be useful, too, however we’ll go along with the previous Met. Lugo, in his first 12 months away from Queens, is getting an opportunity to begin for the primary time since 2017. San Diego believes in his curveball and can want succesful, back-end starters after a 2022 season by which solely Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove had been reliable.
Title you’ll get to know: Jay Groome. In a farm system that’s barren, the New Jersey native is likely one of the few who may help. Groome was a first-round choose of the Pink Sox in 2016, wanted Tommy John surgical procedure and by no means made it with Boston earlier than getting flipped to San Diego final offseason. The lefty has impressed in camp.
Greatest query mark: Can all of the expertise translate into sufficient victories to dethrone the Dodgers? There’s not a extra feared offensive quartet than Tatis, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado. If Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz show they’ve something left, San Diego’s offense might make up for a rotation with depth considerations.
The way it’ll go down: The Padres will probably be an offensive dynamo, however they should outslug their pitching and depth considerations.
3. San Francisco Giants
O/U wins: 80.5
Key participant: Michael Conforto. Within the aftermath of Carlos Correa failing his bodily, the most important pivot the Giants made was towards the previous Mets outfielder, who missed all of final season following shoulder surgical procedure. Conforto is now wholesome and making an attempt to point out he may be the All-Star he was in 2017, when he blasted 27 residence runs in simply 109 video games.
Participant who’ll must step up: Sean Manaea. The lefty was strong for six seasons with the Athletics earlier than an up-and-down marketing campaign with the Padres in 2022, which ended with a 4.96 ERA. The Giants scooped him up, believing there’s extra in his arm, and the early guess is wanting like one. Manaea has proven off improved velocity in camp and is making an attempt to observe Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon as high-upside fliers whom the Giants have maximized.
Title you’ll get to know: Kyle Harrison. The Giants constructed their whole 2020 draft round Harrison, who was coaxed to show professional quite than attend UCLA with $2.5 million. Harrison has changed into maybe the very best lefty pitching prospect in baseball, hanging out 186 batters in 113 minor league innings final season. His main league shot ought to come quickly.
Greatest query mark: Can depth beat star energy? The Giants struck out on Aaron Choose, by no means formally signed Correa and swung a collection of under-the-radar additions this offseason. With Conforto, Manaea, Ross Stripling, Mitch Haniger and Taylor Rogers, they hope sufficient holes have been plugged.
The way it’ll go down: Gabe Kapler blended and matched his option to 107 wins in 2021, however solely 81 final season. This season doubtless will end in between these poles. The Giants have the expertise and depth for a wild-card run, however in all probability not sufficient expertise to steal the division.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U wins: 75.5
Key participant: Corbin Carroll. Arizona solely wanted to see 32 main league video games final season earlier than locking up the younger outfielder for eight years and $111 million. Carroll, the quickest participant within the recreation, is changing into the face of the Diamondbacks at simply 22. Can he go from an excellent prospect to an excellent main leaguer?
Participant who’ll must step up: Madison Bumgarner. Is there something left in MadBum’s legendary left arm? Bumgarner has been a catastrophe for 3 seasons in Arizona, and now could be time to bounce again. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly make up a good prime of the rotation, however the Diamondbacks lack beginning depth. If Bumgarner, who reported to camp slimmer, can grow to be a No. 3, Arizona could be thrilled.
Title you’ll get to know: Gabriel Moreno. The highest catching prospect was blocked in Toronto, which shipped him to Arizona within the Daulton Varsho commerce. After Carson Kelly fractured his forearm, it now seems Moreno would be the on a regular basis catcher. The 23-year-old has a robust defensive status and good bat-to-ball expertise.
Greatest query mark: The center and again of the rotation. Behind Gallen and Kelly are Bumgarner, journeyman Zach Davies and a jumbled group of younger pitchers that features Tommy Henry, Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson and Brandon Pfaadt. In a division with loads of pitching, the Diamondbacks don’t have many choices.
The way it’ll go down: The Diamondbacks are loaded with younger expertise and are on the rise, however this can be a troublesome division by which to tug off surprises. There are too many questions within the rotation and bullpen (which rated because the least-valuable in MLB final season) for supervisor Torey Lovullo’s crew to make a lot of a run, however the future is vivid.
5. Colorado Rockies
O/U wins: 65.5
Key participant: Kris Bryant. In 2022, the primary season of his $182 million contract, the previous Cubs MVP performed 42 video games and hit 5 residence runs. Now wholesome after again and foot issues, Bryant should carry the offense and present, at 31, his greatest years are usually not behind him.
Participant who’ll must step up: German Marquez. The Rockies’ ace is coming off the worst season of his profession. The righty is among the many most sturdy starters within the recreation, however his effectiveness has declined — notably at Coors Discipline, the place he was crushed final season (6.70 ERA). In what will probably be his seventh season in Colorado, the groundball specialist should discover what works at residence.
Title you’ll get to know: Ezequiel Tovar. The group’s prime prospect debuted in September, shortly after turning 21, and have become the youngest place participant in Rockies historical past. Tovar is primed to grow to be Colorado’s on a regular basis shortstop, with a dependable glove and bat, after he emerged by hitting .319 in Double-A and Triple-A final season.
Greatest query mark: Pitching. The Rockies’ employees posted the worst ERA in baseball final season (5.06), and little has been performed to repair it. They may depend on rebound seasons from Marquez and Kyle Freeland, who each disenchanted in 2022. The very fact Jose Ureña, with a profession 4.80 ERA, is their No. 3 speaks poorly about their high quality and depth.
The way it’ll go down: Workforce proprietor Dick Montfort reportedly mentioned in January, “I feel we are able to play .500 ball,” which one way or the other each units a low and lofty bar. The Rockies ought to goal increased, however they gained’t attain increased with this roster.