March Insanity 2023 Last 4: San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic odds, prediction
Some of the unlikely matchups in March Madness historical past will happen on Saturday, when No. 5 seed San Diego State faces No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic within the Last 4 for a berth in Monday’s championship recreation.
The Aztecs have been the underdogs in every of their final two matchups, however they’re favored on this one over the Owls, who’re maybe the most important underdog story in an NCAA Event stuffed with them.
Right here’s how we’re betting Saturday’s contest, which ideas off at 6:09 p.m. ET on CBS.
San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic choose
- San Diego State -2.5 (-115 BetMGM)
San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic prediction and evaluation
I’ve been an enormous fan of Florida Atlantic since earlier than the event, after I highlighted Dusty Could’s group as one of many most dangerous mid-majors, and I wager on this group to win all of it at 80-1 odds earlier on this event.
That mentioned, this appears like the ultimate cease for this 12 months’s Cinderella group.
That’s not an indictment on FAU as a lot as an endorsement of San Diego State, which has asserted its will defensively via the primary 4 rounds of this event. The Aztecs entered the tourney with an elite protection predicated on fixed stress and a relentless pursuit to harass groups alongside the 3-point line.
Certain sufficient, we’ve seen that play out to perfection up to now. Within the first two rounds, Charleston (20.8%) and Furman (23.1%) shot a mixed 22% on 50 makes an attempt from deep, and each groups posted their worst offensive effectivity of the complete season.
Then Alabama, which boasted one of many nation’s finest offenses all 12 months lengthy, fell proper into SDSU’s entice – the Crimson Tide went 3-of-27 from deep (11.1%), with celebrity Brandon Miller making simply one among his 10 long-range makes an attempt.
Two days later, Creighton went 2-for-17 from three to cripple its possibilities of a Last 4 berth.
Can Florida Atlantic break the spell?
The Owls are taking pictures 36.5% from deep on the season, which ranks forty fourth nationally, although they’ve hit simply 31.2% of their 3-point makes an attempt on this event.
That hasn’t deterred this group from firing away – FAU has tried 45.4% of its photographs from lengthy vary within the tourney, the eighth-highest mark within the area and barely increased than this group’s season common (44%).
This season, San Diego State is an ideal 7-0 towards groups with a 3-point fee of 44% or increased, successful these video games by a median of 10.6 factors.
When you think about the 3-point taking pictures woes of all groups on this event – which many suspect is a matter with overinflated basketballs – and the normal struggles for groups taking pictures in cavernous NRG Stadium, these considerations received’t go away on Saturday.
Betting on School Basketball?
Then contemplate the problems offered by the Aztecs’ measurement down low, which supplies them a bonus on the glass and will make life troublesome for FAU’s offense within the paint.
If San Diego State can management the boards on Saturday, it’ll management the tempo of the sport – one other unhealthy signal for the Owls, who achieve half by sporting groups down with their aggressive type and deep rotation.
The Aztecs’ points offensively are a transparent weak point forward of this weekend, and main scorer Matt Bradley (12.5 PPG) will definitely be referred to as upon to play higher than he has thus far.
Nonetheless, this can be a stylistic mismatch for FAU towards a group that’s coaxed opponents right into a predictable 3-point entice all event. I don’t see that altering on Saturday.
San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic Odds (by way of BetMGM)
- San Diego State -2.5 (-115), moneyline -155
- Florida Atlantic +2.5 (-105), moneyline +130
- O/U 131.5 (over -115)