Why Democrat Adam Schiff hopes Republican Steve Garvey makes top two in California Senate primary

It’s game time in California’s grueling pitched battle for an open Senate seat and Democrats are about to find out if they can lock down the two general election slots.

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) has long been the favorite to take first place, but a late surge from Republican baseball great Steve Garvey has rocked the field.

California political races are run via a “jungle primary” system in which the top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

That means that if Garvey, the former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres first baseman, gets edged out, Democrats could split their votes — and money — between two of their party’s candidates in the general election while boosting liberal candidates down the ballot.

Already, the Golden State’s Senate race has been one of the most expensive contests for the upper chamber in the 2024 cycle.

Diverting more donor cash to a reliably blue state could pose complications for Democrats as they grapple with a brutal Senate map in which they have to defend 23 seats compared to Republicans’ 11.

Allies of Schiff, who refrained from vying for Democratic House leadership after former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) stepped down in 2022, have spent considerably to boost Garvey and avert an intraparty melee come November.

Both Schiff and his allies have shelled out at least $11 million to buoy Garvey, according to the Washington Post — and it appears to be working.

A recent Los Angeles Times/UC Berkeley poll found Garvey in first place with 27%, followed by Schiff at 25%, Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) at 19%, and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) at 8%.

If Garvey makes the top two with Schiff, the Democrat would likely be able to overwhelm the ex-first baseman by consolidating liberal support in the general election.

Overall, Schiff is still on top in the RealClearPolitics aggregate with an average of 26.5%, followed by Garvey at 20.5%, Porter at 18.3%, and Lee at 9%.

At the moment Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) is serving out her temporary appointment to succeed Sen. Diane Feinstein (D-Calif.), who died last year. Butler, the former EMILY’s List president, is not running to retain her seat.

All of the top three Democrats have positioned themselves as aggressive progressives.

Schiff, 63, who served as the top impeachment manager in former President Donald Trump’s first trial in early 2020, is eager to position himself as a key adversary to the 45th president should he win the November election. He has also earned the coveted Pelosi endorsement.

Porter, 50, a protege of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), has already cast herself as a firebrand progressive in the lower chamber, aggressively probing Wall Street executives and other business leaders in exchanges that have often gone viral.

And then there’s Lee, 77, who was the only member of Congress to vote against the authorization of military force after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. She has been backed by Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.)

Garvey, 75, a 10-time All-Star who helped propel the Dodgers past the Yankees in the 1981 World Series, is a first-time candidate.

Looming over the heated California Senate race is the risk of low turnout due to a historically sleepy Super Tuesday on the presidential front, with both Republicans and Democrats having clear frontrunners in place.

That could boost Garvey’s chances.

The final results from California are not expected to be known for several days due to the Golden State allowing mail-in voting until March 12.