Who would the Islanders bump from the lineup — and the roster — to make room for Zach Parise?

WASHINGTON — The growing expectation, as we reported last Friday, is that Zach Parise is leaning in the direction of an NHL return, with the likelihood it will be with the Islanders.

So then, two questions:

Where does Parise fit in a lineup for an Islanders team that sits at 15-8-9 after Wednesday night’s overtime loss in Washington?

And what must the Islanders do to accommodate Parise under the salary cap?

The obvious answer to the first question would be the same place he occupied for much of last season: skating to the left of Jean-Gabriel Pageau on the third line. That would shuffle Simon Holmstrom over to the right while knocking Julien Gauthier out of the lineup.

That is the clear place to start because there is not really another spot where potentially upsetting the apple cart would make much sense. The first line has thrived with Anders Lee skating on its left. No one is touching the second line of Pierre Engvall, Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri that has spent all but one game together since March 15. The fourth line is chugging along just fine, and if anything is going to change there, it would probably be the re-insertion of Matt Martin.

The trio of Parise, Pageau and Holmstrom played for 148:04 over 38 games last season, per Natural Stat Trick, accounting for a 56.06 percent expected goals rate.

The question here, though, would be Parise’s readiness.

Could he play every night? Could he retain the same effectiveness that saw him score 21 goals and contribute on both special teams last season? How would he react if Lane Lambert’s answer to those questions is different from his own?

Given the Islanders’ depth in the bottom six, Parise will have to come in understanding his spot is not guaranteed, especially if he takes time to get up to speed. Jumping onto a moving train at age 39 is not an easy thing. If he has skated hard enough on his own in Minnesota to do so without missing a beat from last season, it would be an incredible feat.

Parise has earned the benefit of the doubt over an 18-year NHL career. But if there is not alignment over how playing time would be handled with the Islanders, he should at least sound out options elsewhere. That would be only fair to everyone involved.

The Islanders would not need to move mountains like the Rangers did to get Patrick Kane last season, but once Adam Pelech comes off long-term injured reserve, accommodating Parise’s hit does require some manipulation.

For the sake of simplicity, let’s say Parise returns Jan. 1 on a league-minimum $775,000 deal (an exact timeframe of when Parise will announce a decision is not known).

That would equate to a daily cap hit of $7,175.92, or a prorated $1.37 million cap hit over the full season.

The Islanders are already carrying a hit of $84.94 million, per CapFriendly, which they only are able to do because they can exceed the $83.5 million cap while Pelech is on LTIR. Once he comes off, the Islanders will be over the cap by $1.42 million.

That problem, however, exists with or without Parise — and the solution remains the same.

The Islanders will need to waive or trade two of their defensemen, quite possibly the two they’ve added to help fill the void in Robert Bortuzzo and Mike Reilly, which they could do without much issue provided their other injuries on the blue line are cleared up by the time Pelech is healthy.

But they still wouldn’t have enough cap space to sign Parise without another move.

Would it mean the end for Oliver Wahlstrom, a clear trade candidate having dressed for just 18 games while on a one-year contract? That is where the discussion has to start.

Letting Wahlstrom go would be painful for a club that drafted him 11th overall in 2018. The timing of his knee injury upon returning from Christmas 2022 was nothing short of brutal. But since Wahlstrom signed a one-year deal this summer and failed to make a lasting impact in the lineup, it has looked headed this way.

Due to Julien Gauthier’s injury, which facilitated Wahlstrom’s return to the lineup on Wednesday night, Wahlstrom has another chance to reset the conversation. If he can stick, he could change the calculus.

But for now, a Parise signing seems like it would accelerate a process already in place.

As for the trade deadline

Another cap note: The Islanders are not going to have the space to absorb much salary at the deadline.

The specifics will depend on exactly when Pelech comes off LTIR, and they also can begin accumulating space if and when Parise signs. But even in a best-case scenario, the amount of space they will have accumulated by March 8 will not be all that much.

That does not preclude them from making some kind of deal. Recall that they sent nearly an exact salary match back to Vancouver for Bo Horvat in Anthony Beauvillier and Aatu Raty.

But it does mean they would probably be unable to merely package picks and prospects for an NHLer — they would need to send NHL money back the other way.

Five hits from Islanders-Capitals

1️⃣ Rough timing for Paul Bissonnette to say the Islanders finally are playing more exciting hockey. To be clear, they are. But they certainly didn’t on Wednesday, and Bissonnette could’ve gotten some more mileage out of the schtick had he kept it up for another night.

2️⃣ After the Islanders looked as if they had no energy on the second end of a back-to-back on Saturday in Montreal, the tone in the locker room was that a back-to-back could be no excuse for the performance. This time, there was some acknowledgement of the obvious (and by the way, that does not make it an excuse): The Islanders probably need to figure out how to navigate these situations better, especially early in games.

3️⃣ The good news: There are just three back-to-backs left this season. The Islanders could lose the second end and play like this all three times and it probably wouldn’t be the end of the world. If their biggest problems are that and getting the extra point in overtime, well, there are worse problems to have.

4️⃣ A few days after Mat Barzal scored two points and played well in an overtime loss to the Hurricanes at the start of November, he told me part of the reason was because he was amped to play Carolina on a Saturday night. I’m not sure Isles-Hurricanes is many people’s idea of a big prime-time game — though maybe it should be — but for whatever it’s worth, Barzal will have another chance on a Saturday night against the Hurricanes in a few days.

5️⃣ It was telling that before the game, when asked about Wahlstrom, Lambert pivoted to talking about Wahlstrom’s injury keeping him off the ice. Then, asked whether he still was taking the injury into account for evaluating Wahlstrom, said no.