Trump holds narrow leads in Nevada, Arizona — where Biden triumphed in 2020: polls

Former President Donald Trump is on track to flip two key Western states he lost to President Biden four years ago.

Trump, 77, leads Biden, 81, by four percentage points among registered voters in Arizona (48% to 44%), according to an Emerson College/The Hill poll out Wednesday.

In Nevada, the Emerson/KLAS-TV/The Hill poll showed Trump ahead of Biden, 44% to 41%, with 15% of voters undecided.

When undecided voters who lean toward a certain candidate were pressed on their choice, Trump led Biden 52% to 48% in Arizona and 51% to 49% in Nevada.

Biden, 81, swung through both states — which he won in 2020 — as part of a Western tour Tuesday.

“Trump voters support the former president because they care about an issue (33%) or like Trump (30%) whereas 43% of Biden voters support him because they dislike Trump, the highest sentiment among Biden voters in the swing states polled this month,” Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said of the Arizona survey.

Among Grand Canyon State voters, 58% don’t believe Biden deserves a second term, while just 42% say he does.

When asked whether Trump deserves to the chance to run for president following the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, 51% said he did, while 49% said he did not.

Trump, 77, holds a 5.4 percentage point lead over Biden in the latest RealClearPoltics average of Arizona polling.

In 2020, Biden became just the second Democrat to win Arizona in a presidential election since 1952, with Bill Clinton in 1996 the only other party nominee to accomplish the feat.

The Emerson poll also showed progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) leading Republican Kari Lake 44% to 40% in the closely watched Senate race.

Nevada has voted blue in each of the last four presidential election cycles, but the Emerson poll showed some warning signs for Biden.

“Nevada Hispanic voters support Biden over Trump, 44% to 39%, while white voters break for Trump over Biden, 50% to 39%,” Kimball explained.

More than six in ten Nevada voters (61%) said Biden does not deserve four more years in office, while 39% say he does.

Meanwhile, more than half (53%) said Trump did not deserve the chance to run for high office after the Capitol riot, while 47% said he did.

In the Silver State Senate race, the Emerson poll found incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) leading potential Republican nominee Sam Brown, 41% to 39%, with 21% undecided.

Trump holdd a 4.3 percentage point edge over Biden in the Silver State, according to the RCP aggregate.

The two polls sampled 1,000 registered voters in each state March 12-15, with a margin of error of plus -or-minus 3 percentage points.