Thin rotation depth makes Carlos Rodon pivotal to Yankees’ success

TAMPA — A consensus grew this offseason that the Yankees’ most pivotal player — the one whose success or failure could most send them positively or negatively in one direction or the other — was Carlos Rodon. 

Which, based on his 2023, is like deciding that keeping Mitchell Robinson healthy and productive is the key to the Knicks’ near future. 

Rodon dismisses the theory that he is such a fulcrum to which way the Yankees go in 2024 and so does Brian Cashman.

And sure, the Yankees have plenty of talent — more so with Juan Soto around to try to reinvigorate the offense.

If that talent stays generally healthy and flourishes, then the club will probably prosper even if Rodon continues to do his best Whitson. 

But even with the Big Three of Soto, Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole, it sure is easier to see how the Yankees put 82-80 in the rearview mirror if Rodon resembles his 2021-22.

And not 2023, when injuries limited the lefty to 14 starts, yet his 6.85 ERA was the second-worst for that many starts in franchise history (Luis Severino’s 2023 of 6.65 was third-worst if you want to begin to see the equation toward what Cashman has dubbed a “disaster” of a season). 

Rodon certainly does not offer a sugarcoated version of last year. He called it “a flop.”

Which puts him in a too large group of Yankees such as Nestor Cortes, DJ LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton who want to prove that 2023 was not who they are now.

Of those, the potential upside is the greatest for Rodon. Add that with the lack of proven depth beyond the rotation top five, and this is why Rodon is so pivotal. 

In 2021-22, he was an All-Star with a sixth- and fifth-place finish for the Cy Young. Of the 114 starters who worked at least 200 innings combined in those two seasons, none had a higher strikeout percentage than Rodon’s 33.9 (Gerrit Cole was second at 32.9).

Only Zack Wheeler, Sandy Alcantara and Max Scherzer had a higher Wins Above Replacement (Baseball Reference). He led the NL in ERA at 2.25 in 2022. 

That led the Yankees to minimize a rest of his career doused with injury, underperformance and indicators he might not be a great fit for the New York market and sign him to a six-year, $162 million deal — at the time the eighth-largest ever given to a free-agent pitcher.

He followed with a dismal showing on and off the field where, among other items, he disrespected pitching coach Matt Blake during his woeful last start of 2023. 

Blake said there are no lingering issues. That seems to go, for now anyway, with Rodon, the pitcher as well. No issues.

Which is probably why, while Rodon and Cashman wanted nothing to do with assessing Rodon as the crucial swing piece for this Yankee season, Blake cited Rodon and Nestor Cortes in tandem, suggesting the health and performance of the two lefties in the rotation were essential for the club. 

In 2022, both were All-Stars, combining for 59 starts and a 2.68 ERA — if they do that again behind Cole, the Yankees should win the AL East.

In 2023, they were both out for long stretches with injury, combining for 26 starts and a 5.92 ERA — if they do that again, then the Yanks are going to be strong candidates to miss the playoffs again. 

So the Yanks are pleased that both showed up early to begin workouts at the minor league complex and look good to date.

Rodon arrived in Tampa the first week of January. He felt so much of last season was about a delivery he said got “wonky,” robbing consistency in his fastball and slider — the two pitches he relied upon 89 percent of the time. 

Rodon talked broadly about deploying his curve and changeup more. But he knows he is about fastball up and slider down. And he feels that getting streamlined and more efficient down the mound will increase the potency of his main offerings.

He feels that the early work has helped in this area and already he is throwing considerably harder in this camp than last season. 

“There’s definitely motivation,” he said. “They’re not wrong [to question him]. The proof is in the pudding. It’s kind of right there where we can all see it. You can go look back at seasons and see how many innings I’ve thrown. It tells you, yeah, he’s pretty good when he’s on the mound, but how often is he on the mound? I’d like to change that rep, but it’s just baby steps, man. It’s one step at a time.” 

And he said, “It would be a mistake to worry about Step 4,000,” meaning seeing himself as the key to this Yankee season. To do that, “I can’t ignore Steps 1, 2, 3, 4. I can’t go that far down the road.” 

Nevertheless, the path he is on will have a lot to do with where the Yankees end up in 2024. Is he what the Yankees paid for, a legitimate No. 2 starter? Or what he was last year, their No. 1 problem?