Swing-state voters drawn to RFK Jr. candidacy as they sour on Trump-Biden matchup: poll

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could receive up to 26% support from registered voters in six key battleground states as voters sour on an increasingly likely rematch between President Biden and Donald Trump, a new poll shows.

The New York Times/Siena College poll showed the 69-year-old political scion, environmental lawyer, and anti-vaccine advocate receiving 22% backing in Wisconsin, 23% in Nevada and Pennsylvania, 24% support in Georgia, and 26% in Arizona and Michigan.

The survey also shows Kennedy is most popular with young would-be voters, with 34% of respondents aged 18-29 and 31% of respondents aged 30-44 saying they would support him in a three-way race.

The son of the late attorney general and senator from New York initially challenged President Biden for the Democratic nomination but opted to stage an independent run last month.

If Kennedy does make the ballot in any or all of the six states, the poll indicates his presence is more likely to harm Trump than Biden — but he would take support from both candidates.

In a hypothetical two-way race, 46% of Kennedy supporters in the six states said they would support or were leaning toward the 45th president.

Another 39% said they would vote for or were leaning toward Biden.

The poll previously showed Trump leading Biden in five of the six key states among registered voters, with only Wisconsin going for the Democrat by a paltry two-point margin.

With Kennedy involved, however, the political picture becomes much more murky.

Trump and Biden are tied in Arizona on 33% each with the third-party candidate in the mix, and both men are even in Pennsylvania with 35% apiece.

The former president’s lead over Biden in Georgia grows to seven percentage points (36% to 29%) when RFK Jr. is included, while the 77-year-old Republican’s lead shrinks to three points in Michigan (34% to 31%) and seven points Nevada (38% to 31%).

Wisconsin still goes for Biden by two percentage points, but each major party candidate’s vote share drops by ten percentage points, to 37% for Biden and 35% for Trump.

Kennedy’s competitive showing is largely fueled by disdain for both of the past two White House occupants.

The poll found just 42% of registered voters had a favorable view of Trump, with 56% holding an unfavorable view — but Biden’s spread was even worse, with 41% saying they had a favorable opinion of the commander-in-chief and 57% saying they had an unfavorable view.

Voters also overwhelmingly said they trusted Trump more than Biden on the economy, despite the president’s efforts to tout his “Bidenomics” agenda.

The NYT/Sienna College polling sent heart palpitations through the Democratic Party, with some luminaries publicly begging Biden to consider his position.

“The stakes of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore,” former Obama strategist David Axelrod wrote on X. “Only @JoeBiden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”

Former White House chief of staff Ron Klain responded by attacking Axelrod for his past dismissiveness toward Biden.

“Man who called Biden ‘Mr Magoo’ in Aug 2019 is still at it,” Klain chided Sunday.

Other analysts pointed to polling showing former President Barack Obama suffering from a slump at this point in his presidency before sailing to reelection victory over Republican Mitt Romney in 2012.

No presidential contender outside the Democrat-Republican duopoly has won a state since George Wallace carried Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi for the American Independent Party in 1968.

In 1992, Reform Party nominee Ross Perot won a higher percentage of the vote than Wallace but didn’t pick up any electoral votes, finishing second in both Maine and Utah.

In a three-way national matchup, Biden is on top with 40% support, followed by Trump at 38.8%, and Kennedy Jr. at 14.6%, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.