Super Bowl 2024 predictions, odds: Christian McCaffrey player props to target

The Super Bowl is all about prop betting. 

There are only so many ways you can bet 49ers vs. Chiefs sides and totals, so you have to delve deep into widely available player markets to find as many NFL wagers as possible before the most fantastic gambling sport enters the long offseason. 

Here at the New York Post, we’re digging into every available player prop market.

In this article, I’ll walk you through how to bet on San Francisco all-world running back Christian McCaffrey. 

Here are three ways I’m betting on McCaffrey in Super Bowl 2024. 

Christian McCaffrey Prop No. 1: Over 18.5 Rush Attempts

Kyle Shanahan’s wide-zone rush offense is mostly interchangeable.

You can toss in any running back, and that guy will manage explosive rushing plays with how good the San Francisco wide receivers are at blocking.

This year, Shanny rotated carries between McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason and Deebo Samuel.

That said, McCaffrey is a different animal.

He’s arguably the best running back in the league and he’s been the 49ers MVP at times this season.

This is the Super Bowl. There are six months of rest following Sunday. It’s time to pull out all the stops and give the ball to your best player as often as possible – run McCaffrey into the ground if you must. 

And I expect Shanahan to go with a run-heavy game plan because Kansas City’s run defense is questionable at best. 

The Chiefs rank 15th in Rush Success Rate allowed, 27th in Rush Defense DVOA, 28th in EPA per Rush allowed and 25th in yards per carry allowed. 

The defensive line ranks only 18th in Defensive Line Yards, and the linebacking core missed a combined 17 tackles. 

You can run blow through the Chiefs’ front seven like a block of soft cheese, and I foresee no issues for San Francisco’s league-best rushing attack – the 49ers rank first in EPA per Rush, first in Rush Success Rate, and second in Rush Offense DVOA.

However, as alluded to, I don’t expect a back-by-committee effort.

I expect Brock Purdy to repeatedly hand the ball off to his best player behind the league’s second-best offensive line by Line Yards.

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Ready to start your Super Bowl 2024 betting?

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McCaffrey reached 19 carries in only seven of his 18 games this year. However, he recorded 18 or more in three of six without Mitchell, who I don’t expect to be a factor in the Super Bowl. 

I expect Shanahan to run his best player into a soft front seven as many times as possible in Super Bowl 58, and I’m making two correlated wagers on that assumption. 

First, I’m betting McCaffrey Over 18.5 carries, who should see big-time usage.

Second, I’m betting Mitchell Under 1.5 carries, who should be a non-factor because McCaffrey will become the only three-down back.

The rush attempts have to go to someone in a rush-heavy script, and I expect they will go unilaterally one way. 

Picks: 

• Christian McCaffrey Over 18.5 Carries (-115, Bet365) 
• Elijah Mitchell Under 1.5 Carries (-120, BetMGM)

Christian McCaffrey Prop No. 2: First Rush Attempt Over 3.5 Yards

We’ve established that Shanahan should follow a rush-heavy, McCaffrey-heavy game plan. 

Shanahan scripts his first few drives, and I bet he’ll script some of his better rush plays for McCaffrey to get him off to a hot start against a weak defense.

Per Nick Giffen of The Action Network, McCaffrey averaged more than five yards per carry across 62 scripted rush plays, which Giffen described as rush attempts in the first 12 plays of each game. 

Furthermore, also per Giffen, McCaffrey eclipsed a three-yard rush in 31 of 48 scripted carries that were either his first, second or third carry of the game, good for a 65% hit rate. 

Finally, also per Giffen, McCaffrey ran for four or more yards on his first carries in 11 of the 16 games he played this year with top tackle Trent Williams. 

Shanahan should attack Kansas City early and often on the ground, and his scripted plays are designed to put his players in the best possible scenario.

Put it all together, and McCaffrey should rip off a significant gain on his first rush – or, at the minimum, a reasonable gain that doesn’t get stuffed within three yards of the line of scrimmage. 

Pick: 

• Christian McCaffrey First Rush Over 3.5 Yards (-115, DraftKings)