Pro Picks: Bills Will Beat the Dolphins to Win the AFC East Title

Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

The Miami Dolphins went from playing for the AFC’s No. 1 seed to playing for their division to avoid the sixth spot this week.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills stand in their way.

The Bills-Dolphins will face off Sunday night in the NFL’s final regular-season game in a showdown for the AFC East title.

The Dolphins (11-5) had a shot at earning a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs but were pounded by Baltimore 56-19. If they beat Buffalo, they’ll secure the No. 2 seed.

The Bills (10-6) would get the two seed with a win. If they lose, they’d drop to sixth, seventh or completely out of the playoffs.

Miami is 1-4 against winning teams. A dynamic offense led by Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill couldn’t get going against the Ravens. They’ll need to get back on track against Buffalo.

The Bills routed the Dolphins 48-20 in Week 4. They’re 3-point favorites on the road, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Pro Picks leans toward the playoff-tested Bills.

PHILADELPHIA at NEW YORK GIANTS

The free-falling Eagles (11-5) have lost four of five and now need a victory plus Dallas to get upset to win the division. The Giants (5-11) almost rallied for a win in Philly on Christmas.

The winner clinches at least a wild-card spot and would win the AFC South if the Jaguars lose. The Colts beat the Texans 31-20 on the road in Week 3 behind Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew, who stepped in after the rookie starter got hurt.

UPSET SPECIAL: COLTS 24-23

Line: Steelers minus 3 1/2

The Steelers (9-7) are fighting for a playoff spot and sticking with Mason Rudolph at quarterback after two straight impressive games. The Ravens (13-3) locked up the No. 1 seed and are looking to avoid injuries.

The winner would clinch the NFC South if the Buccaneers lose to Carolina. The Saints (8-8) kept their hopes alive with an impressive win at Tampa. The Falcons (7-9) have lost three of four.

The Bengals (8-8) are playing for a winning record. The Browns (11-5) already have locked up the AFC’s No. 5 seed.

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE

Line: Jaguars minus 5 1/2

A four-game losing streak after an 8-3 start forced the Jaguars (9-7) into having to win the game to clinch their second straight AFC South. C.J. Beathard led them to a 26-0 win last week filling in for Trevor Lawrence. The Titans (5-11) are aiming to play spoiler.

Line: Buccaneers minus 5 1/2

A banged-up Baker Mayfield gets his second chance to lead the Buccaneers (8-8) to the NFC South title. The lowly Panthers (2-14) were embarrassed on and off the field as owner David Tepper was fined $300,000 for throwing a drink at Jaguars fans toward the end of last week’s loss.

NEW YORK JETS at NEW ENGLAND

Line: Patriots minus 2 1/2

The Patriots (4-12) could cost themselves draft positioning if they beat the Jets (6-10) in what could be Bill Belichick’s last game after an unprecedented run of success that included six Super Bowl titles.

The Vikings (7-9) need a win and plenty of help to make the playoffs. The Lions (11-5) can tie the franchise record of 12 wins in a season. They’ll be the NFC’s No. 2 or 3 seed.

A victory secures a playoff berth for Jordan Love and the Packers (8-8). The Bears (7-9) have won four of five and are facing an important offseason decision on Justin Fields.

Line: Cowboys minus 13 1/2

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys (11-5) need a win to clinch the NFC East title and the No. 2 seed. The Commanders (4-12) would ruin their rival’s hopes with an upset.

Line: Seahawks minus 2 1/2

After losing five of seven, the Seahawks (8-8) now need a win and loss by the Packers to make the playoffs. The Cardinals (4-12) ruined Philadelphia’s division hopes last week and aim to mess up Seattle’s season.

LOS ANGELES RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO

The 49ers (12-4) have clinched the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Rams (9-7) will be either the No. 6 or 7 seed. Staying healthy is the priority for both teams so expect to see plenty of backups.

Line: Raiders minus 2 1/2

The Broncos (8-8) aim to finish with a winning record heading into a difficult offseason that starts with how to handle Russell Wilson’s situation. Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce gets one more chance at proving he deserves the job after going 4-4 in his first eight games.

KANSAS CITY at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Patrick Mahomes and the many starters on the Chiefs (10-6) could rest with the AFC West title already secured. The Chargers (5-11) are better off losing for draft positioning.

Last week: Straight up: 11-5. Against spread: 10-6

Overall: Straight up: 157-99. Against spread: 133-113-9.

Best Bet: Straight up: 9-8. Against spread: 6-10-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 8-9. Against spread: 10-7.

Thursday: Straight up: 13-6. Against spread: 14-4-1.

Monday: Straight up: 9-12. Against spread: 13-7-1.

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