Outnumbered 6-1 with artillery, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is over without US aid: ‘Adjusments to our plans’

KYIV, Ukraine – Ukraine faces a catastrophic shortage of artillery and ammunition as the country’s war against Russia enters its third year — and US lawmakers playing political games over military aid are holding the smoking gun.

As a result, Ukraine’s much-hyped counteroffensive is dead, while the Kremlin’s military spending “is setting new records,” Ukrainian officials warn.

Russia now outnumbers Ukraine’s artillery strikes by roughly six to one.

“The shortage of artillery shells and long-range missiles affects the capabilities of our army and makes adjustments to our plans,” Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Defense Ivan Havryliuk told The Post in Kyiv this week.

“Currently, we are forced to switch to a defensive operation.”

Meanwhile, it’s been two months since the US sent its last military aid package to Ukraine as Washington fights over a supplemental funding bill that would contribute $60 billion more in aid to Kyiv.

“Two years into this war, the people of Ukraine continue to fight with tremendous courage. But they are running out of ammunition,” President Joe Biden said in a statement Friday.

“Ukraine needs more supplies from the United States to hold the line against Russia’s relentless attacks, which are enabled by arms and ammunition from Iran and North Korea.”

Civilians are dying at an alarming rate

As Washington squabbles over providing basic munitions, Ukrainian troops and civilians are dying at an increasingly alarming rate.

Last week, Ukraine Armed Forces left the Donestsk-area town of Avdiivka, citing a lack of munitions to fight back against the tyrannical Russian forces still armed to the teeth with rockets and artillery.

Havryliuk said the fighting in Avdiivka caused the most damage and casualties in the two years of war.

“The experience of the Russian-Ukrainian war shows that modern artillery plays one of the key roles on the battlefield,” Havryliuk told The Post.

“Therefore, strengthening the artillery and missile potential will automatically increase our capabilities on the battlefield.”

Russian forces also appear to have grown cockier with Ukraine’s dwindling artillery supply, said George Barros, an analyst with the Institute for the Study of War.

Putin’s soldiers are boldly remaining in the same place after launching shells on Ukrainian forces — without worrying about having to escape returning fire.

“Open-source investigations have documented Russian forces using stationary artillery firing positions for long periods of time – an indicator that Ukrainians lack the ammunition for counter-battery fire,” he said. 

Since Jan. 1 alone, Ukraine has lost more than 60 square miles of its land to Russian occupation, Barros added.

“[They] will likely continue losing more as Ukraine continues to fight under-resourced,” he said.

A shift in strategy to conserve ammo

The strain on artillery has forced Ukraine’s troops to try and desperately conserve what they have, which is harming their ability to defend themselves — let alone clawback land.

“Delays in Western security assistance are forcing Ukrainian forces to husband materiel, and shortages appear to be degrading Ukrainian counter-battery fire – a crucial capability for Ukraine to defend itself,” Barros said.

“Ukrainian forces have clearly been suffering from shell hunger since at least December 2023,” he added.

To make the most of what relatively small supply they have left, Kyiv has turned to its drone program – to avoid wasting the precious supply of artillery shells left remaining, Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Federov told The Post.

Ukrainian troops are now required to only fire artillery after its forces have confirmed a target’s position by drone optics, according to Federov, who oversees the country’s Ministry of Digital Transformation.

Kyiv is also supplementing its weapons capabilities with drones.

Soldiers are now using unmanned aircraft to drop bombs or deploying kamikaze drones to blast Russian forces, instead of firing artillery to take out their adversaries, according to Federov.

Meanwhile, the Russians are taking advantage of the situation by devoting efforts to eliminating the game-changing US-made M777 howitzers that fire 155mm artillery compliant with NATO standards, a Ukrainian lieutenant colonel nicknamed “M1” said. 

The Ukrainian Armed Forces requested The Post not publish his real name for his safety.

“M777 howitzers are being hunted by the Russians because of the extent of damage they cause the enemy,” said the officer, who serves as the head engineer in charge of a military unit that repairs and restores the powerful artillery launchers.

Help from European allies is not enough

While the US drags its feet, Ukraine’s other allies and partners have been attempting to fill in the gaps. For example, Denmark on Sunday announced it would contribute its “entire supply” of artillery to the fight.

The European Union also has pledged to send Ukraine roughly 2,300 artillery shells per month beginning in April through the end of the year, “assuming the EU meets its targets, which it has previously failed to do,” said John Hardie, deputy director of Russia program at the non-partisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, DC.

Like the US defense industry, Europe’s manufacturers have struggled to produce the necessary amounts of artillery, as well as other munitions and weapons.

But even if European partners deliver on their promises, Hardie assessed that such contributions would still not be enough to help Ukraine beat back Russian forces.

“That figure means serious shell hunger for Ukraine, more Ukrainian troops dying, and probably some more territory lost,” he said.

“With US aid, Ukraine could be receiving another 2,000 155mm shells per month by [July.]”

Still, Hardie warned that the combined total “is probably insufficient for successful offensive operations” — but “should be sufficient to mount a solid defense.”

While Kyiv would rather go on the offensive to liberate Russian-occupied regions, simply holding the line of defense to stop Moscow’s advance would significantly contribute to Ukraine’s propensity to ultimately win the war, Barros said.

“Helping Ukraine keep the lines where they are through continuous Western military support is far more advantageous and cheaper for the United States than allowing Ukraine to lose,” he said.

“That would simply give Russia time and space to prepare for a renewed war to conquer Ukraine and confront NATO” — which would ultimately require US troops to respond.