NL West preview 2024: Dodgers chase history in division prediction

The Post’s Mark W. Sanchez previews the NL West:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

O/U wins: 103.5

Key player: Shohei Ohtani. It has to be the $700 million man, right? Last year batting in a terrible Angels lineup, the best baseball show on Earth won an MVP, flirted with the AL home run record (before a torn UCL ended his season early) and made 23 brilliant starts on the mound. What can a prodigious slugger do when Freddie Freeman suddenly is batting behind him? What can a two-way superstar do when suddenly he no longer has to worry about pitching? The only thing that may stop Ohtani is the gambling scandal involving his former translator, Ippei Mizuhara.

Player who’ll need to step up: Mookie Betts. It will be difficult for one of the best players in the sport to improve, but he will be asked to do more defensively. A right fielder turned second baseman is now a shortstop after Gavin Lux played his way out of the position this spring. Betts, who also could be a bowling star, is apparently out to prove he can do anything.

Name you’ll get to know: Gavin Stone. The righty debuted in what was a forgettable first season, in which he allowed 31 earned runs in 31 innings. Stone, a top prospect, told reporters this spring he was tipping pitches all of last year and has solved the problem. Because of injuries to the rotation, the organization’s No. 6 prospect will open the season as the No. 5 starter.

Biggest question mark: What will the rotation look like at the end of the year? There is wild upside but questions surrounding Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Bobby Miller, James Paxton and Stone. If the Dodgers don’t like the answers to those questions, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Emmet Sheehan and Dustin May loom as potentially excellent arms who are expected to return from injury sometime this season.

How it’ll go down: The Dodgers will win because they virtually always win, having taken the division in 10 of 11 years. An inordinate number of things can go wrong and the Dodgers still could coast to the NL West title. If an inordinate amount goes right, they could threaten the 116-win record set by the 2001 Mariners.

2. San Francisco Giants

O/U wins: 83.5

Key player: Kyle Harrison. With the top two NL Cy Young finishers last season in Logan Webb and late-spring-signing Blake Snell atop the rotation, there is potential for the Giants’ pitching to be overwhelming. Can Harrison, the club’s top prospect who showed promise in a taste of major league life last season, rise to form a devastating trio? If so, the Giants would have a way to shut down a division filled with powerful offenses. If not, more pressure would be placed on Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray, both returning from injury at some point this year.

Player who’ll need to step up: Jorge Soler. The last Giants player to slug 30 homers in a season was Barry Bonds in 2004. Can Soler break the curse? He’s their best bet after blasting 36 with the Marlins last season — which was one season after he never got going and posted a .695 OPS. There are questions about which Soler the Giants will get, but at his best he’s among the most powerful bats in the game.

Name you’ll get to know: Jung Hoo Lee. The former Japanese star is a leadoff hitter and a center fielder the Giants liked enough to strike a six-year, $113 million deal. Lee, who idolized Ichiro Suzuki as a kid and projects as a contact-oriented pest who can annoy pitchers, will be critical to jump-start an offense that is deep if not starry.

Biggest question mark: Do the Giants have enough offense? After another offseason of whiffing for the biggest stars, the Giants instead brought in Lee, Soler and Matt Chapman — all interesting, but all with a degree of volatility. Ditto for Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski, useful bats that have not proven to be consistently more than that.

How it’ll go down: The Giants will have enough pitching to stick around in the wild-card race, if not the division race. If they find their way to October, their rotation would be a scary one to face.

3. San Diego Padres

O/U wins: 83.5

Key player: Fernando Tatis Jr. In his first season back from labrum surgery and a PED suspension, the young star was solid (.770 OPS with a Gold Glove in right field) but not spectacular. Can he return to the near MVP level (.975 OPS) he reached in 2021? Tatis is just 25, is now shouldering more of the load without Juan Soto and facing makeup questions after a disappointing and chaotic 2023. Can he remind of his greatness?

Player who’ll need to step up: Dylan Cease. Their rotation — which also includes Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Michael King — has the stuff to be excellent but features little guarantees. Cease epitomizes as much, a lights-out righty who finished second in AL Cy Young voting in 2022 but took a large step back last season, when he pitched to a 4.58 ERA in 33 starts. If the Padres are going to turn it around, Cease will have to, too.

Name you’ll get to know: Jackson Merrill. The latest Padres potential phenom to rocket to the majors at a young age, Merrill is just 20 and a natural shortstop, yet he was the Opening Day center fielder. Merrill, a first-round pick in 2021, had a strong camp and won a job at a position he hadn’t played before this spring.

Biggest question mark: Can Mike Shildt control a clubhouse that Bob Melvin apparently could not? The Padres hired the former Cardinals manager after a disastrous 2023 that included reports of clubhouse discord and a lack of accountability. Even without Soto, there are a lot of stars — Tatis, Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado — who failed to create a positive culture last season. Can Shildt fix that?

How it’ll go down: Maybe the quieter Padres will be better than the louder Padres. The media glare in Southern California is focused upon Los Angeles, but the Padres should have enough offense and pitching to be at the least a wild-card contender.

4. Arizona Diamondbacks

O/U wins: 83.5

Key player: Corbin Carroll. Somehow the 2023 Diamondbacks, who made a run to the World Series, were a below-average offensive team in the regular season. Their bats do not crush teams, which means Carroll’s production must be steady and must be superb. The 23-year-old is already a star, and there is potential for the Rookie of the Year to blossom into an MVP candidate.

Player who’ll need to step up: Brandon Pfaadt. Arizona signed Eduardo Rodriguez to back up the excellent 1-2 punch of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, but Rodriguez is out indefinitely with a lat strain. The rotation will look to Pfaadt, whose rookie season had high highs (in the postseason) and low lows (much of the regular season). Pfaadt held an 8.20 ERA at the end of July, lowered it to 5.72 by the end of the season and emerged in the postseason (3.27 ERA) as an unlikely rotation savior. Can he do it again?

Name you’ll get to know: Jordan Lawlar. The top infield prospect briefly debuted last season despite just 16 games of work at Triple-A. The 21-year-old is hyped as a potential five-tool shortstop who has demolished minor league pitching and has run wild on the base paths. There isn’t a spot open in Arizona’s infield at the moment, but if Geraldo Perdomo struggles at shortstop, Lawlar’s time could arrive.

Biggest question mark: The Diamondbacks are talented, young and suddenly have World Series experience. But are they capable of hanging around in a stacked division that includes the juggernaut in Los Angeles? Arizona lost virtually no one this offseason and added Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk.

How it’ll go down: A year after shocking the world, the Diamondbacks will have to do so again. They were overshadowed this winter, when Arizona improved but not as dramatically as some of its division rivals. Expect the wild-card race to go down to the last days of the season, with similar talent levels among the non-Dodgers contenders.

5. Colorado Rockies

O/U wins: 60.5

Key player: Nolan Jones. A rare bright spot for the 2023 Rockies, Jones made a run at NL Rookie of the Year as a flexible defender who settled in the outfield and a breakout hitter who posted a .931 OPS and 20 home runs in 106 games. There is a chance the Rockies have found their All-Star representative for the next handful of years.

Player who’ll need to step up: Kris Bryant. Two seasons into a $182 million contract, the former Cubs star has yet to play more than 80 games in a campaign with the Rockies. Now 32 and coming off another injury-filled, dreadful season (.680 OPS), there is decreasing hope that he can revert to the MVP he once was. Can Bryant surprise and help the Rockies hit their way past their pitching problems?

Name you’ll get to know: Zac Veen. The 2020 first-round pick steadily rose through the Rockies’ system until wrist surgery cut short his Double-A season last year after just 46 games. The top outfield prospect has pop and a ton of speed — with 12 homers and 55 steals in 2022 — and, at 22, could hit his way to the majors with a healthy season.

Biggest question mark: Pitching. The Rockies, as always, will score runs and as near-always will struggle to stop opposing offenses. Can Kyle Freeland lower an ERA that was 5.03 last season? Can Cal Quantrill rediscover his form after leaving the Guardians? Is Austin Gomber better than the 5.50 ERA he posted last year? Dakota Hudson and Ryan Feltner likely will round out a rotation that might be the worst in baseball.

How it’ll go down: The Rockies lost 103 games last season and did little in free agency to attempt to get better. It is hard to see avenues toward even mediocrity, and another 100-loss season may be on the way.