NFL Thanksgiving picks against the spread: Full slate predictions, odds

The best thing about NFL Thanksgiving weekend is that we get three games on Thursday. Wall-to-wall football — and this year, the Lions are good, so the first three hours will be more fun than usual.

The second-best thing is that we get to spend some time on those games here at the top of the column instead of having to give this space to the Giants or Jets.

Thursday

DALLAS COWBOYS (-11) over Washington Commanders

Washington actually has done OK in its recent holiday visits to Jerry World, winning 41-16 in 2020 as the Washington Football Team and 38-31 as the Redskins in 2017, with Cowboys wins of 31-26 in 2016 and 31-23 in 2018. All of those results would cover this massive spread.

But how many points would you need to take a team that has lost twice to the Giants this season? How much of a head start would you want when facing a Dallas team that’s 4-0 home this season with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points? Perhaps the Commanders profile better than the Jets, Patriots, Rams and Giants did. And they did play the Eagles close twice. But they have losses of 34 points to the Bills and 20 to the Bears, and haven’t been the same since the sell-off of Montez Sweat and Chase Young. 

DETROIT LIONS (-7.5) over Green Bay Packers

The Lions were the latest of many losses for the Lock of the Week as they failed to hammer the Bears. The Lions got theirs with a late comeback win but left their backers cold. There was a chance for a miracle Lions cover at the end, but Justin Fields’ fumble rolled out the back of the end zone.

Figuring the Lions will be geared up for this national TV spotlight game. They’ve won their three prime-time games at Kansas City, home vs. the Raiders and at Green Bay (34-20). Hoping all of the Stupid Lion Tricks have been left in the past. The Packers are 1-3 on the road and should find it tough to match scores with Aaron Jones out.

Betting on the NFL?

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

This is normally a price point where I’d take Seattle, but they could be in trouble here in a short week without Kenneth Walker III and with Geno Smith at least dealing with an elbow injury. The 49ers got past their three-game losing streak and I don’t really want to get in their way. They have road wins of 30-7 at Pittsburgh and 34-3 at Jacksonville, two playoff contenders, and this could be more of the same.

Friday

Miami Dolphins (-10) over NEW YORK JETS

There’s an angle that the Jets’ defense will rally to its highest level now that Zach Wilson has been removed from the lineup. There are two problems with that: 1. The Dolphins are the best and fastest offense they have faced. 2. Wilson’s replacement is Tim Boyle. There’s a reason Wilson’s been starting since Week 2, and it’s because Boyle is worse than him. Jets split their two games with the Dolphins last year but didn’t face Tua Tagovailoa.

Best bets: Dolphins, Cowboys, Falcons
Lock of the week: Dolphins (Locks 3-8 in 2023)
Last week: 7-7 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.