NFL oddsmakers give Aaron Rodgers 35 percent chance for surprise 2023 return
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Aaron Rodgers has said that his rehab is going at an extraordinary pace.
How extraordinary?
Oddsmakers at DraftKings believe Rodgers has a decent chance to return from his torn Achilles after a little over two months removed from surgery, placing +180 odds on the Jets’ signal-caller to play again in 2023.
These odds imply a 35.71 percent chance he will play before the end of this season.
Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer reported Rodgers sent a workout video to his Jets teammates that “blew their minds.”
The hope is that Rodgers will return to practice sometime in early December.
During his weekly appearance on Tuesday’s episode of “The Pat Mcafee Show,” Rodgers said he has been doing light jogging on the treadmill but is careful to “not stretch the Achilles.”
Important in these odds is that DraftKings is not allowing bettors to bet on no, which should come in around -250, implying a 7.14 percent vid on the market.
If the odds on “NO” were fair value, it would imply that Rodgers has a 71.43 percent chance not to play in 2023.
Aaron Rodgers odds, chances to play in 2023
Rodgers’ recovery has been going incredibly well — some would even argue, suspiciously well.
“Aaron Rodgers is not playing football this year. Why are we doing this?” Ringer founder Bill Simmons said on his podcast in November.
“If he’s back mid-December, he was misdiagnosed. He doesn’t have a torn Achilles, and I know medicine is better and everything else,” Simmons’ guest Cousin Sal said on the show. “I don’t think he’s going to the guys where the medicine is better I really don’t he’s almost our age, so, if he’s back mid-December, I’m sorry you didn’t have a torn Achilles; you had a strained Achilles.”
When discussing theoretical odds on FanDuel for Rodgers’ return, Simmons theorized that the odds should be -1300 to the “NO” (Rodgers won’t return), while his guest said -600.
Betting on the NFL?
But since DraftKings refuses to offer “NO” on this prop, some would say this is a no-brainer bet for DraftKings to take.
“I’d love to meet the people betting yes on this,” X user @3res_Comas said.
The Jets sit at 4-6 with a date against the Dolphins on tap for a Black Friday game as 10-point home underdogs.
They are +1100 (8.33 percent chance implied) to make the playoffs on BetRivers Sportsbook.
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