NBA In-Season Tournament preview: Odds, prediction, picks for group play

The debut of the NBA In-Season Tournament starts on Friday as all 30 teams take the hardwood to begin play in the league’s newest effort to add excitement to the regular season.

The format includes six groups (of five teams) consisting of three from the Eastern Conference and three from the Western Conference.

Each team plays four games within the group, and the six group winners, along with two Wild Cards (the best records that didn’t win their group), advance to the eight-team Knockout Round.

The semifinals take place in Las Vegas in December, with the championship on Dec. 9. Every player on the winning team receives $500,000.

All odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.

NBA In-Season Tournament odds

Milwaukee Bucks +850

Boston Celtics +800

Denver Nuggets +850

Los Angeles Lakers +1200

Phoenix Suns +1400

Cleveland Cavaliers +1400

Now that you know how it works, as well as the teams with the top odds to win it all, let’s handicap the field and take a look at our six predicted winners for each group.

West – Group A

(Lakers, Grizzlies, Suns, Trailblazers, Jazz)

The Suns are favored to come out of this group and advance to the Knockout Round at +155, with the Lakers right behind at +180.

This will likely come down to those two teams.

Phoenix hosts Los Angeles on Nov. 10, which will set the tone for the group as the Suns hope to get guards Devin Booker and Bradley Beal back from injury.

The second-place team in this group should win its other three games and have an excellent shot at a Wild Card spot, considering Memphis, Utah, and Portland have struggled to start the season. 

Phoenix lost the first meeting with the Lakers, 100-95, in late October as L.A. rallied from a 12-point deficit in the fourth quarter.

The Suns should be able to get revenge at home and win the remaining games in their group to capture Group A in the West.

West – Group A pick: Suns +155

West – Group B

(Mavericks, Nuggets, Rockets, Clippers, Pelicans)

In World Cup terms, this might be considered the Group of Death.

It should be extremely competitive with Houston being the lone team that probably has no chance of advancing.

The Nuggets draw both the Mavericks and Clippers at home, while Los Angeles is scheduled to play the Mavs in Dallas. 

The dark horse in this group is New Orleans, which is +440 at FanDuel to advance.

The Pelicans host the Mavericks and Nuggets and have a good chance to win three of four, which is probably enough to win this ultra-competitive group.

Denver seems too chalky, so let’s take a shot with New Orleans.

West – Group B pick: Pelicans +440

West – Group C

(Warriors, Timberwolves, Thunder, Kings, Spurs)

The Warriors are favored at just under 2/1 odds to escape this group, with the Kings right behind at +220.

Golden State is already 2-0 against Sacramento this season as the two teams who played a Game 7 in the first round of the playoffs last season meet in the final game of group play at Golden 1 Center.

Minnesota heads to San Antonio and Golden State for its first two group games, followed by home contests with Sacramento and Oklahoma City.

The Thunder have a tough draw with road games against the Wolves and Kings while starting with the Warriors at home.

Although the Kings have failed to get over the hump against the Warriors, this is a good opportunity for them to get some revenge here and capture the group.

West – Group C pick: Kings (+370)

East – Group A

(Hawks, Cavaliers, Pistons, Pacers, 76ers)

The 76ers and Cavaliers are the two favorites in this group, but the team to look at is the Hawks. Atlanta sits at 5/1 odds at FanDuel to advance out Group A, as it hosts Philadelphia and Indiana, while wrapping up with a trip to Cleveland.

Philadelphia hosts Cleveland in the final game, while starting off with a trip to Detroit. With the James Harden debacle out of the way, the 76ers should be more focused as they have jumped out to a decent start on the season.

Cleveland has been dealing with a bunch of injuries early on so it’s hard to count on them. Atlanta has played better after a slow start, and the 5/1 odds to win the group are too hard to pass up.

East – Group A pick: Hawks +500

East – Group B

(Bobcats, Heat, Bucks, Knicks, Wizards)

The Bucks are the odds-on favorite at -140 to win this group, while the likes of the Hornets and Wizards have long odds to advance. 

Miami has struggled early this season, which includes a loss to Milwaukee.

But the Heat host the Bucks in the final game and travel to New York to face a Knicks team they knocked out in the second round of the playoffs.

Although it’s chalky, Milwaukee is worth a strong look behind Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard to advance out of Group B in the East.

East – Group B pick: Bucks -140

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East – Group C

(Celtics, Nets, Bulls, Magic, Raptors)

This is the most lopsided group in the East with the Celtics sitting at -140 to advance.

Boston hosts Brooklyn and Chicago and travels to Toronto and Orlando, which shouldn’t be that tough of a task to finish 4-0.

Who could pull off the upset in this group?

Orlando looks like a dark horse at +850 as the Magic draw the Celtics and Raptors at home, and travel to Brooklyn and Chicago.

The key is obviously if Orlando can surprise Boston at home, but don’t be shocked if the Magic steal one of the two Wild Card bids.

Only Boston has NBA Finals aspirations in this group, so don’t overthink it. Look for them to advance.

East – Group C pick: Celtics -140