NBA DFS picks: PrizePicks players for Hornets-Pelicans, Magic-Hawks
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Wednesday’s NBA schedule originally had 10 games, but after the postponement of Warriors vs. Jazz, we’re down to nine.
That’s still plenty on a loaded NBA PrizePicks board.
Let’s find some Wednesday night winners!
LaMelo Ball (Hornets vs. Pelicans) more than 22.5 points
Charlotte has been dealing with injuries all season, and Wednesday will shape up to be no different. The Hornets will be missing Gordon Hayward, Brandon Miller and Mark Williams – three big rotation pieces.
Without those three on the court this season, Ball gets a massive 6.7% usage bump, from 33% to 39.19%. You have to take some of these on/off splits with a grain of salt – they’re never perfect – but that’s still a gigantic number. In fact, 39.19% would lead the league in usage.
Wednesday’s matchup is tough, as New Orleans owns the seventh-best defensive rating in the league. Ball was playing out of his mind in November before he got hurt. He averaged 27.3 points per game during a stretch that included a few tough matchups against top-tier defenses.
Ball will now be playing his third game since returning from the injury, so he might play fewer minutes (he had 27 and 30 minutes in the two games he played last week), but the usage and shot attempts should be plentiful.
There’s a chance he scores 25% of his team’s points, which should be more than enough to clear this number.
Paolo Banchero (Magic vs. Hawks) more than 27.5 points
This seems like a massive number for an up-and-comer who is still trying to figure out his game. But Banchero really started trending in the right direction before the new year.
Orlando’s power forward hasn’t cleared this number in four consecutive games, but the Magic dealt with a defensive gauntlet during that stretch against the Thunder, Knicks, Heat and Timberwolves. All of those teams rank 11th or better in defensive rating and three of them are bottom 10 in pace.
Before that rugged group of opponents, Banchero had scored more than 27.5 points in five of the previous six games.
In addition to his recent surge, teammate Franz Wagner got hurt on Jan. 3 and hasn’t played since. And although Banchero has produced recent mixed results, there are signs indicating he could take advantage of a fantastic matchup against Atlanta.
Without Wagner on the floor this season, Banchero sees a 4% uptick in usage rate. Since the new year, Banchero has logged seven of his 11 highest usage rates of the season.
The Hawks are a goldmine for scoring, ranking 27th in defensive rating and fourth in pace. Expect him to get back on track in a cupcake matchup without Orlando’s second-leading scorer.
Alec Burks (Pistons vs. Timberwolves) more than 13.5 points
The Timberwolves are a tough matchup for Burks with the league’s top defensive rating. And there’s also a strong chance that any Detroit game is a blowout. But the absence of Cade Cunningham could negate a bad game script for Burks on Wednesday.
Burks has been doing his thing for a very long time in the league.
He’s just been a bucket off the bench wherever he’s played, and he could potentially help a contender at the trade deadline for some scoring depth.
This year, he’s averaging a shade over 12 points per game with one of the higher usage rates that he’s posted during his eight seasons in the NBA.
Most of the Pistons get a usage increase without Cunningham on the floor, and that includes Burks with a nice 3.3% bump. Burks averages .77 points per minute without Cunningham on the court this season.
Betting on the NBA?
Detroit played three games since Cunningham went down. Burks came off the bench in the first one and scored 15 points against the Spurs despite playing only 20 minutes.
But in the next two games, he logged 29 and 30 minutes, respectively, and scored 19 and 34 points.
RotoGrinders has Burks projected for a tick over 16 points and 22 minutes against the T-Wolves, and I think there is a good chance he sees 25-plus minutes.
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