MLB PrizePicks predictions, participant picks July 21: Shohei Ohtani, Seth Lugo

Welcome again for one more Friday breakdown of the MLB PrizePicks board.

Per standard, all 30 groups are in motion at this time, with solely the Cardinals-Cubs recreation getting began earlier than 6:40 PM ET. 

Let’s bounce proper into among the spots I’m concentrating on to construct out my playing cards at this time. 

Seth Lugo greater than 5.0 Pitcher Strikeouts 

Lugo has put collectively a pleasant 12 months in his first full season as a beginning pitcher for the Padres. 

He has recorded at the least 5 strikeouts in 10 of his 13 begins this season, together with every of his final three begins.

His strikeout charge sits proper round league-average at 22.2%. 

Immediately, he will get probably the greatest potential matchups for right-handed beginning pitchers as he takes on the Tigers. 

Detroit has struck out on the fifth-highest charge in MLB versus righties this season, and so they rank second-worst in each wOBA (.287) and wRC+ (82).

Lugo has thrown over 90 pitches in every of his final three begins and may have sufficient leash to get the job executed for us tonight.  

Tony Gonsolin lower than 4.0 Pitcher Strikeouts 

Gonsolin has one of many shortest leashes of any common beginning pitcher within the league.

He was yanked after simply 54 pitches in his final outing regardless of cruising by 5 innings and permitting only one run. 

Supervisor Dave Roberts blamed the fast hook for Gonsolin on the “humidity” and the actual fact he had a “contemporary ‘pen” in that exact recreation. 

These shenanigans are nothing new for Roberts and the way in which he handles his pitching employees, particularly in reference to Gonsolin who has averaged simply 68 pitches per begin in his final 4 begins. 

Quick ahead to at this time’s matchup, the place Gonsolin will meet up with certainly one of baseball’s finest offenses in Arlington, Texas.

The Rangers personal the league’s prime wRC+ at 122, and so they additionally rank second in wOBA at .346. 

Gonsolin has didn’t file at the least 4 strikeouts in three of his final 4 begins. 

The robust matchup, the supervisor’s fast hook for his beginning pitchers, and a strikeout charge beneath 19% are all working in opposition to Gonsolin at this time. 

Johan Oviedo lower than 6.0 Pitcher Strikeouts 

Oviedo has been proper round league common as a beginning pitcher this season.

He owns a 4.53 ERA that’s supported by underlying metrics resembling xFIP (4.56) and SIERA (4.63).

Nonetheless, his strikeout charge checks in barely beneath league common at 20.4%. 

This projection feels barely inflated as a result of he’s coming off of a 10-strikeout masterpiece his final outing in opposition to the Giants.

Oviedo has thrown greater than 6 strikeouts in simply two of his different 18 begins this season. 

Immediately, he will get a matchup with the Angels who’ve been glorious versus right-handed pitching this season.

They rank fifth within the league in each wOBA (.336) and wRC+ (113) versus righties.

Their projected lineup comprises simply two hitters which have struck out greater than 25% of the time this season. 

I believe Oviedo falls wanting this projection at this time. 

Shohei Ohtani greater than 7.5 Pitcher Strikeouts 

Ohtani is placing collectively one more phenomenal season each on the dish and on the mound. 

We are going to deal with the pitching facet at this time as Ohtani will make his nineteenth begin of the season in opposition to the Pirates. 

His 32.2% strikeout charge ranks third finest within the league amongst certified beginning pitchers.

He has recorded greater than 7.5 strikeouts in 9 of his 18 begins this season.

Two of the opposite 9 begins ended prematurely (one on account of a blister and one other on account of a rain delay). 

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Ohtani will get an important matchup at this time because the Pirates rank fifth-worst within the league in each wOBA (.300) and wRC+ (86) versus right-handed pitching. 

He continues to have one of many longest leashes in baseball as effectively.

He has averaged precisely 100 pitches per begin if we throw out the 2 begins that ended for causes past his management. 

He ought to have the ability to dominate this weak Pirates offense and rack up greater than 7.5 strikeouts at this time.