Measuring Drug Seizures at the Southern Border: How Reuters Analyzed the Data

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – By way of a Freedom of Data Act (FOIA) request, Reuters obtained and analyzed a dataset of drug seizures by U.S. Customs and Border Safety (CBP) brokers at ports of entry alongside the U.S.-Mexican border from January 1, 2012 by December 31, 2022.

The seizures information analyzed by Reuters displays modifications in trafficking patterns and authorities’ sharper give attention to fentanyl, consultants and officers mentioned.

The info encompasses seizures at southern border ports of entry, the place most illicit medication consumed in the US, together with fentanyl, are at present smuggled.

That mentioned, fentanyl has additionally been documented being trafficked from Mexico to the US by worldwide mail, in airplane baggage, hid in maritime transport containers, by underground tunnels and in drones – strategies not captured within the information.

Through FOIA, Reuters additionally requested seizures of medicine by Border Patrol brokers alongside the huge stretches of the southern border between ports of entry. CBP didn’t reply to the request so drug seizures between ports of entry should not included in Reuters’ evaluation.

Border Patrol seizures symbolize a minority – between 13% and 19% – of the entire weight of seizures on the border for cocaine, fentanyl, heroin and methamphetamine. For marijuana, however, almost 70% of the entire weight of seizures on the southern border happen between ports of entry within the final a number of years, in keeping with CBP information obtainable on-line. For the 5 principal medication analyzed by Reuters, together with marijuana, the web information present that traits in seizures at ports of entry largely monitor these of seizures between them.

The dataset initially included 107,353 rows, which describe drug seizure occasions in addition to samples of seized medication which can be despatched to U.S. authorities laboratories for evaluation. To take away such samples, Reuters omitted from its evaluation drug seizures with no weight or that talked about throughout the seizure description the legislation enforcement businesses that run the sampling labs.

The Reuters evaluation focuses on the 5 mostly seized medication – marijuana, methamphetamine, cocaine, heroin, and fentanyl – which comprise 84% of all seizures at southern border ports of entry over the previous decade.

As a result of the main target of Reuters’ reporting was large-scale drug smuggling, Reuters omitted seizures of small quantities seemingly destined for private use. With the steering of a number of drug trafficking researchers, Reuters used the next cutoffs: one kilo for marijuana, 100 grams for cocaine, 100 grams for methamphetamine, 20 grams for heroin and 20 grams for fentanyl.

To estimate opioid doses seized on the U.S.-Mexico border, Reuters assumed that heroin seizures on the border are 60% pure, heroin bought to customers is 40% pure, border seizures of fentanyl powder and fentanyl tablets are 8% pure and 1.25% pure respectively, and fentanyl tablets sometimes include 1.5 mg of pure fentanyl. These purity assumptions match these utilized by the Fee on Combating Artificial Opioid Trafficking, based mostly on drug purity averages reported by CBP and the Drug Enforcement Company (DEA).

A latest DEA examine famous that fentanyl purity has risen over time and reported larger common purity of fentanyl drugs and powder – 14.4% purity in powder and a mean of two.2 mg of pure fentanyl in tablets – in a 2021 pattern of over 1,000 fentanyl seizures inside the US. Provided that fentanyl purity has modified over time, Reuters determined to make use of the extra conservative purity assumptions utilized by the Fee for its dosage calculations.

About 10% of fentanyl seizures talked about phrases like “powder” or “brick” whereas a few third included the phrases “tablet” or “pill.” For fentanyl seizure occasions that didn’t point out such phrases, Reuters assumed the fentanyl was 1.25% pure. Therefore, the evaluation virtually actually undercounts fentanyl doses.

Reuters assumed {that a} typical dose of pure fentanyl is 1.5 mg – the quantity frequently present in tablets – and {that a} single dose of heroin is 40 mg – provided that single doses of heroin are sometimes bought on the streets in luggage that weigh 100 mg at round 40% purity. Thus, Reuters estimated that one kilo of fentanyl tablets would include round 8,300 doses, one kilo of fentanyl powder incorporates 53,300 doses, and one kilo of heroin incorporates 15,000 doses.

Seizures of all drug varieties elevated in 2020 in comparison with 2019, in addition to an total spike in low-weight seizures and seizures on pedestrians.

Drug trafficking consultants consulted by Reuters attributed the will increase, partially, to CBP with the ability to examine extra border-crossers at first of the pandemic on account of decreased visitors throughout ports of entry. As a result of drug seizures have largely recovered to prior patterns, Reuters didn’t give attention to these pandemic-era disruptions in its evaluation.

Reuters’ evaluation additionally reveals methamphetamine seizures falling over the previous 18 months to 2019 ranges, bucking a pattern of fast upward progress within the years prior.

This sudden drop puzzled consultants consulted by Reuters. Whereas a number of posited that the decline could possibly be defined by border authorities prioritizing detection of fentanyl on the expense of catching much less lethal meth, others instructed that organized crime teams could also be trafficking much less meth into the US on account of falling retail costs or as a result of the market of potential customers could also be saturated.

(Reporting by Jackie Botts; Enhancing by Janet Roberts and Frank Jack Daniel)

Copyright 2023 Thomson Reuters.