Marquette vs. Kansas Maui Invitational predictions: College basketball odds, picks

This year’s Maui Invitational is among the most stacked early-season multi-team events (MTE) ever. 

I wouldn’t blame you if you mistook this event’s semifinals for the Final Four in 2024. 

It’s Feast Week at its finest. 

No. 2 Purdue faces No. 7 Tennessee in the first matchup, while top-ranked Kansas plays No. 4 Marquette in the nightcap. 

Here’s how I’m betting each game. 

Marquette vs. Kansas prediction

(10:30 p.m. ET)

A critical factor in early-season college basketball handicapping is returning production. The teams with more continuity generally beat the teams with less in November and December.

These teams usually are more well-rounded and can beat teams still finding chemistry and identity. 

Enter Marquette. 

The Golden Eagles return four starters from last year’s squad that swept the Big East regular-season and tournament championship titles.

They lost Oliver-Maxence Prosper to the NBA draft, but former sixth-man David Joplin can seamlessly slide into his starting 4 spot. 

Marquette’s offense is fueled by head coach Shaka Smart’s inventive ball-screen offense, using Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro in pick-and-roll sets combined with Kam Jones’ spot-up ability.

Kolek is an excellent scorer and playmaker out of those sets, Ighodaro is a dynamic interior scorer and willing passer out of those sets, and Jones is elite at either pulling up or driving downhill out of those sets. 

Behind those three, Marquette touches paint-to-perimeter better than any college basketball offense I’ve seen. The Golden Eagles go around the horn until they find an open shot. 

In the young season, Marquette ranks eighth nationally in offensive efficiency, scoring 1.0 PPP in ball screens (87th percentile), while Jones scores 20 points per game, including 1.8 PPP in spot-up situations (98th percentile). 

Betting on College Basketball?

Kansas head coach Bill Self is among the best ball-screen coverage prep and adjustment coaches ever, but the Jayhawks’ pick-and-roll defensive numbers weren’t elite last year.

Synergy recorded them as a D-I average ball-screen defense (52nd percentile), while ShotQuality pegged them slightly above average (136th nationally). 

Moreover, the Jayhawks’ ball-screen defense looked shaky against Kentucky, which spread the floor wide and made Hunter Dickinson defend in space.

Marquette’s spacing is among the best in the nation, which could cause problems for Self, Dickinson and Co. 

Also, I think Kansas is overvalued in general. The Jayhawks closed as a seven-point favorite against Kentucky in the Champions Classic, which was way too high – they didn’t cover, winning by five. 

The ‘Hawks have a spectacular group of perimeter talent, headlined by electric two-way guard DaJuan Harris.

Grabbing Dickinson in the portal was among Self’s best non-NCAA Tournament accomplishments. 

That said, I have questions about this squad that I haven’t heard answered. 

Who is going to step up alongside Harris in the backcourt? It’ll be tough to replace Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick’s combined 35 points per game. 

They’re trying to replicate that production via Towson transfer Nick Timberlake and freshman Elmarko Jackson. I’m unsure if those two have the firepower to do so.

Jackson has been excellent in the early season, but he stumbled against Kentucky (seven points and three turnovers). Meanwhile, Timberlake has struggled all around (83.3 ORtg).

I’m also curious about the shooting on this squad. If Kansas starts Jackson at the 2, which Self has been doing, that means the Jayhawks’ two best perimeter shooters are Harris at point and Dickinson at center. 

But when you want to initiate your offense with those two in ball-screen sets, who will spot-up from the perimeter? 

Last season, it was Dick who often salvaged the Jayhawks’ half-court offense with elite shooting – when Dick’s shots weren’t falling, the offense stalled. 

The spacing won’t be there without shooting, which could limit Dickinson’s offensive production. 

It’ll be tough for Marquette to stop Dickinson straight up on the interior, given the Golden Eagles don’t have much size. But that job becomes much easier if the Jayhawks’ shots aren’t falling. 

So, I like the matchup for Marquette against an overvalued Kansas squad. 

Moreover, I love betting on Coach Smart in these spots. His teams are 84-56-3 against the spread as an underdog in his head coaching career. 

Give me the Fightin’ Shakas to down No. 1 Kansas in Maui. 

Marquette vs. Kansas pick

Marquette +4.5 (-110) at Caesars | Play to +4 (-110)