Knicks vs. Timberwolves prediction: NBA New Year’s Day odds, pick, best bet

After going winless on a three-game road trip, the New York Knicks return home to kick off the New Year against the Minnesota Timberwolves in an afternoon NBA matchup at Madison Square Garden.

Saturday’s loss to Indiana came hours after New York traded guards RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and a 2024 second-round pick to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for forwards OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and guard Malachi Flynn.

Though this trade might excite some Knicks fans, it could leave their team short-handed against a quality opponent like the Timberwolves.

Timberwolves analysis

The situational spot certainly won’t benefit the Timberwolves, given the travel and early start time for the game. One must also be mindful of the distractions of playing in New York City following the New Year celebrations.

However, there’s a sense of pride among this Timberwolves team that suggests they’re more disciplined.

It all starts on the defensive end of the floor, where the Timberwolves lead the league in efficiency. According to TeamRankings, they’re allowing 104.9 points per 100 possessions.

Minnesota is roughly two points better than the second-ranked team in this category.

The Timberwolves do a tremendous job guarding the perimeter. Minnesota ranks third in opponent 3-pointers and fifth in 3-pointers allowed.

One reason this matchup suits Minnesota is that New York’s offense can sometimes be very static.

The Knicks can be guilty of playing too much isolation basketball, ranking just 28th in assists with 23.7 per game. This playing style can make the Knicks predictable for their opponents to guard them.

Knicks analysis

It’ll be interesting to see if the Knicks’ new additions will join the team for Monday’s game. Players need time to get their affairs in order when switching cities or countries like in this instance.

If Anunoby, Achiuwa and Flynn suit up to play, they wouldn’t have had sufficient time to acclimate with the team. Thus, I don’t see their potential involvement as beneficial this early on.

The Knicks’ brass must’ve felt Barrett and Quickley were expendable enough to give up two players who combined to average 33.2 points per game.

Anunoby and Achiuwa should bring a much-needed defensive intensity to this Knicks team. Both players are known for their ability to guard players on the wing.

There’s likely some addition by subtraction with this trade. New York has struggled to strike a balance between its offense and defense. It dropped from 15th in defensive efficiency last campaign to 20th this season.

The Knicks could still be in the market for a top shooting guard with Barrett’s departure, so I think there’s still some tinkering in order with this roster.

However, Monday’s game might be too soon to expect a significant contribution from reinforcements.

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Timberwolves vs. Knicks prediction

The Knicks are going through an identity crisis because they’ve taken a much more offensive-minded approach under Tom Thibodeau.

Ironically, with their hard-nosed defense, the Timberwolves have the characteristics we used to associate with a Thibodeau-led team.

Instead, we have Thibodeau’s Knicks allowing 127.6 points over their last five games.

If you’re trying to time when this Knicks’ defense takes off, look toward a softer part of their schedule.

Minnesota opened as a one-point road favorite, and I recommend bypassing the spread altogether and backing them on the moneyline.

Pick: Timberwolves ML (-120, Caesars)