For North Korea, US Defectors Can Be a Propaganda Win, however a Logistical Ache

SEOUL (Reuters) – North Korea is prone to milk the border crossing by a U.S. soldier for propaganda functions however will in all probability not have the ability to acquire political leverage, analysts and a former North Korean diplomat stated.

Pyongyang might even find yourself paying lots to maintain U.S. Military Personal Travis King in a gilded cage, they stated.

King’s destiny was unclear on Wednesday, a day after he dashed into North Korea throughout a tour of the tightly managed Joint Safety Space (JSA) on the border between the 2 Koreas.

U.S. officers stated they imagine King crossed the border deliberately and was detained by the North Koreans.

Whether or not a prisoner or a defector, King is prone to turn out to be a pawn in a wrestle relationship again to the Chilly Battle and the years of the 1950-1953 Korean Battle, analysts stated.

Analysts stated discussions over the soldier’s destiny may see a number of the first diplomatic engagement between North Korea and america in years. However they see little likelihood the incident will have an effect on stalled denuclearisation talks or crack the North’s lingering isolation following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pyongyang has by no means actually been ready to make use of such instances for geopolitical leverage, stated Andrei Lankov, director of the Seoul-based Korea Threat Group.

“I can’t recall a case after they managed to make use of it as leverage to extract critical concessions, however domestically they’ve some positive aspects as a result of their propaganda presents it as one other failure of one other American provocation, with the American imperialists on their knees begging for forgiveness,” he stated.

A lot will depend upon whether or not North Korea views it as propaganda alternative, or whether or not it desires to deal with the “unlawful” nature of the crossing and deal with him as a felony with dangerous intentions, stated Rachel Minyoung Lee of the U.S.-based Stimson Heart.

“I don’t assume North Korea views the most recent incident as sturdy leverage or a possibility to have interaction the U.S.,” she stated.

“North Korea is aware of that the U.S. authorities is unlikely to vary its North Korea coverage or its dedication to U.S. prolonged deterrence due to one U.S. soldier who reportedly confronted disciplinary motion and wilfully crossed into North Korea.”

Former North Korean diplomat Tae Yong-ho, who’s a now a member of South Korea’s parliament, stated holding an American soldier might be not very cost-effective and is usually a headache for the North in the long term.

When a U.S. soldier defects, North Korea has to create a safety and surveillance crew for them, and prepare an interpreter, a non-public car, driver and lodging, he stated.

“Of their every day lives, they could not exit for procuring in downtown Pyongyang by themselves, not to mention journey overseas,” Tae stated of different U.S. troopers who defected many years in the past.

King might need some navy intelligence however not a lot worth given his low rank, he added.

Pyongyang has a typical playbook for treating American and different Western detainees or defectors effectively to keep away from political blowback, Lankov stated, with the notable exception of U.S. school scholar Otto Warmbier, who died in 2017 shortly after being launched from a North Korea jail.

He stated the probabilities are low that King would face the identical sort of deadly therapy as Warmbier as a result of that was a one-off occasion that solely led to issues for North Korea’s leaders.

“They deal with Western residents dramatically totally different from how they deal with their very own residents,” Lankov stated.

Detainees are sometimes housed within the North Korean equal of a four-star lodge, he stated.

“Their circumstances are higher not solely than the common North Korean prisoner, however of the common North Korean citizen.”

From the federal government’s standpoint it makes good sense to torture and kill, or no less than make life as disagreeable as potential, for home opposition or criminals, “as a result of folks must be terrified,” he added. “But when they deal with the foreigners in the identical method, it nearly positively backfires.”

Nonetheless, North Korea’s lingering paranoia over the pandemic makes it onerous to foretell how they could act now, he added.

North Korean border guards fatally shot and burned the physique of a South Korean fisheries official in 2020, and later chief Kim Jong Un ordered a complete metropolis into lockdown when a North Korean crossed again into the nation from the South.

(Reporting by Josh Smith in Seoul; Further reporting by David Brunnstrom in Washington and Hyonhee Shin in Seoul, Modifying by Angus MacSwan)

Copyright 2023 Thomson Reuters.