College Football Predictions: SEC win total bets for every team
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As we method Week 0, I’m engaged on filling out my college football predictions futures portfolio, and I dug deep into SEC win totals this week.
Listed below are my short-and-sweet ideas on each SEC staff’s win complete for the upcoming season.
Georgia Bulldogs over/underneath 11.5 wins
- Motion Analytics Projections: 11.5 wins
Georgia boasts a loaded roster and has a cookie-cutter schedule.
There’s just one sport with a projected unfold underneath two touchdowns (at Auburn in Week 5).
Sadly, projections don’t present worth on the win complete, and it’s onerous to think about Georgia sweeping their SEC schedule for the third straight season.
The play: Go
Alabama Crimson Tide over/underneath 10.5 wins
- Motion Analytics Projections: 9.1 wins
The Crimson Tide entered the post-Bryce Younger period by making two underwhelming coordinator hires, bringing in OC Tommy Rees from Notre Dame and DC Kevin Steele from Miami.
Nick Saban tends to re-load each season with elite recruiting, and he’s making an attempt to do the identical this season.
The Tide can have 27 four- and five-star recruits on the roster, per 247Sports.
Younger expertise is essential, however so is veteran management, and the Tide have virtually zero expertise on the roster, rating ninth-to-last nationally in SP+ returning manufacturing and seventh-to-last in Phil Steele’s Expertise metric.
The offensive line is inexperienced, and the quarterback room is full of three “meh” guys (Taylor Buchner, Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson).
I’m betting the coordinator hires and lack of expertise mix in Saban’s first two-loss season since 2019.
The play: Below 10.5 Wins (-150 at Caesars)
LSU Tigers over/underneath 9.5 wins
- Motion Analytics Projections: 8.9 wins
Head coach Brian Kelly returns 15 starters for his second 12 months in Dying Valley, rating tenth in SP+ returning offensive manufacturing.
The offense is loaded with quarterback expertise (I’m excessive on beginning quarterback Jayden Daniels), offensive line expertise (4 offensive line starters), and working again depth (5 skilled backs).
The protection seemingly improves, particularly if linebacker Harold Perkins turns into a Nagurski candidate in his Sophomore season.
The Tigers will probably be favored in 11 video games and draw Missouri and Florida from the East.
The play: Over 9.5 Wins (-110 at BetMGM)
Tennessee Volunteers over/underneath 9.5 wins
- Motion Analytics Projections: 6.1 wins
Tennessee should change a ton of manufacturing on offense, together with their offensive coordinator, quarterback and 6 starters.
I’m unconvinced that Joe Milton can re-create Hendon Hooker’s quarterback manufacturing. Milton simply isn’t correct sufficient.
The protection returns extra, however the Vols couldn’t cease anybody final 12 months.
The play: Below 9.5 wins (-188 at FanDuel)
Ole Miss Rebels over/underneath 7.5 wins
- Motion Analytics Projection: 8.1 wins
Ole Miss returns the Thirteenth-most offensive manufacturing in FBS, per SP+.
The Motion Community’s Switch and Returning Manufacturing (TARP) metrics, which account for switch portal exercise, are even greater.
It’s onerous to say who will begin at quarterback, however I’m pleased with both returning starter Jaxson Dart or Oklahoma State switch Spencer Sancers.
Be careful for working again Quinshon Judkins.
The Rebels will transfer the ball behind an offensive line that returns 4 starters and 131 profession begins.
The play: Over 7.5 wins (+105 at BetMGM)
Arkansas Razorbacks over/underneath 7.5 wins
- Motion Analytics projection: 7.3 wins
Head coach Sam Pittman is 21-13-2 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) as head coach of the Razorbacks, essentially the most worthwhile coach in FBS throughout his tenure.
However this roster is awkward and lacks continuity exterior of returning quarterback KJ Jefferson.
Projecting Arkansas is hard, and the fashions present no worth on both facet.
The play: Go
Texas A&M Aggies over/underneath 7.5 wins
- Motion Analytics projection: 7.7 wins
Will Jimbo Fisher hand over play-calling duties to Bobby Petrino?
No person is certain.
Petrino must if the Aggies are to take any step ahead on offense. Final 12 months was a catastrophe.
With query marks on the teaching employees and no actionable mannequin edge, there’s no play right here.
The play: Go
South Carolina Gamecocks over/underneath 6.5 wins
- Motion Analytics projection: 6.0 wins
The Gamecocks performed spoiler final season, selecting up upset wins over ranked Kentucky, Tennessee and Clemson.
Sadly, regression is coming. They had been -80 web yards per sport in SEC play final season and can face a much-harder power of schedule this season.
The Gamecocks additionally return solely 10 starters.
The play: Below 6.5 wins (-135 at DraftKings)
Kentucky Wildcats over/underneath 6.5 wins
- Motion Analytics projection: 8.3 wins
I like Kentucky this season.
Head coach Mark Stoops and defensive coordinator Brad White give their protection such a excessive ceiling, so I count on them to re-create defensive manufacturing regardless of dropping six starters.
The offense ought to be a lot improved.
Bringing again Liam Coen as offensive coordinator will get Kentucky again to its roots (inside zone from 11 and 12 personnel).
The offense returns 10 starters. Most significantly, the Wildcats return 4 starters and 125 profession begins on the offensive line, so their run-heavy offense ought to thrive.
New quarterback Devin Leary (NC State switch) is arguably an improve over Will Levis. Leary is far more cell and may work from exterior the pocket.
Kentucky tasks as a favourite in 9 video games this 12 months.
The play: Over 6.5 wins (-140 at BetMGM)
Missouri Tigers over/underneath 6.5 wins
- Motion analytics projection: 7.2 wins
Missouri has the ninth-most SP+ returning manufacturing within the nation, together with 15 returning starters.
Quarterback Brady Cook dinner returns 4 his fourth season in Columbia, they usually added huge receiver depth within the portal (Theo Wease from Oklahoma).
The sky is the restrict if new offensive line coach Brandon Jones can enhance the offensive line play.
The road returns 136 profession begins and 9 guys with FBS expertise, so that you’d determine they enhance upon their lackluster marks from final 12 months.
The play: Over 6.5 wins (+115 at FanDuel)
Mississippi State Bulldogs over/underneath 6.5 wins
- Motion Analytics projection: 6.5 wins
It’s too onerous to mission the Bulldogs within the wake of Mike Leach.
The mannequin projections align with the market.
The play: Go
Auburn Tigers over/underneath 6.5 wins
- Motion Analytics projection: 7.9 wins
The Tigers rank second nationally in The Motion Community’s TARP rankings, combining 17 returning starters with 247Sports’ fifth-ranked switch portal class.
They convey in head coach Hugh Freeze, who ought to be an improve from Bryan Harsin.
I mission some optimistic turnover regression after they had been -11 in web turnovers final season.
I’ve received a number of love for Auburn.
The play: Over 6.5 wins (-125 at Caesars)
Florida Gators over/underneath 5.5 wins
- Motion Analytics projection: 5.7 wins
Going from Anthony Richardson to Graham Mertz at quarterback will probably be powerful for Gator followers to swallow.
In addition they have solely three true SEC dwelling video games, as they play Georgia in Jacksonville and draw a highway sport with LSU in cross-conference play.
They’ll additionally play at Utah within the non-con.
The play: Below 5.5 wins (+125 at Caesars)
Vanderbilt Commodores over/underneath 3.5 wins
- Motion Analytics projection: 3.0 wins
Vanderbilt ought to begin 2-0 with non-con wins over Hawaii and Alabama A&M.
After that, it’s anyone’s guess.
Can Vanderbilt win an additional sport?
Their greatest shot will probably be at UNLV in Week 3, the place they’re projected as a two-point canine.
The play: Go
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