Alabama vs. Auburn prediction: College basketball odds, picks, best bets for Wednesday

Perhaps the week’s most significant college basketball game occurs Wednesday night in Auburn, Ala., as No. 12 Auburn hosts in-state rival No. 16 Alabama for a monster SEC matchup. 

It’s otherwise known as the Iron Bowl.

As it stands, Alabama sits atop the SEC standings at 8-1, while Auburn sits in third, a game behind at 7-2.

South Carolina is 8-2, while Tennessee is 6-2, so this game could shake up the top of the league. 

Even more critical, both squads are projected as potential top-four NCAA tournament seeds by BracketMatrix. 

The predictive analytics rate both highly, as Auburn ranks fifth in KenPom’s efficiency ratings while Alabama ranks seventh.  

The game has wide-ranging implications, from SEC standings to predictive analytics ratings to tournament seeding. 

Let’s discuss why I’m laying the points with Auburn. 

Alabama vs. Auburn odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Alabama Auburn	+4.5 (-102) -4.5 (-120)	+172 -210	o163.5 (-110) u163.5 (-110)

Alabama vs Auburn prediction

(7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

The Tide downed Auburn in Tuscaloosa a few weeks ago, 79-75, but that game needs a deeper dive. 

Alabama shot 11-for-30 from 3 (37%), while the Tigers shot 5-for-25 (20%), so the former saw some good shooting luck.

The situational spot heavily favored Alabama, as the Tide were in a prime bounce-back spot off a loss, while the Tigers were due for a loss after winning five consecutive SEC games. 

Add it together and Alabama was always going to win that game. 

But in a revenge spot in Auburn, the Tigers should see more favorable shooting luck and a higher focus level.

Meanwhile, Alabama is a tad overvalued and due for a loss after 10 wins in 11 tries. 

So, I’m betting Auburn leverages the situation to a significant home victory. 

From a more general schematic perspective, I still like Auburn. 

This game is strength-on-strength, as Alabama ranks first in SEC play in 2-point and 3-point shooting, while Auburn ranks first in 2-point and 3-point shooting allowed. 

But digging a little deeper, Auburn has advantages in a few areas. 

Nate Oats’ offensive coaching philosophy hinges on pace and Rim-and-3 shooting. But Auburn is an elite transition denial defense (0.92 PPP allowed, top 40 nationally) that ranks top 120 nationally in 3-point rate allowed (35%) and top 40 in paint points per game allowed (27).

Bruce Pearl boasts elite rim protectors in Johni Broome (10% block rate, 19th nationally) and Jaylin Williams, and he leverages them by trusting them on the interior and sending his perimeter defenders on all-out ball-screen attacks. 

Aggressive ball-screen defense should prove problematic for Alabama point guard Mark Sears. Auburn presses half-court ball handlers at one of the highest rates nationally, and the Tide rank 348th in PPP against press coverage (0.69), turning the ball over a few too many times (19%, 13th among SEC teams in conference play). 

In the prior matchup, Alabama scored only 12 points on 23 pick-and-roll actions against Auburn (0.52 PPP), only winning because the Tide shot 37% from deep, which should regress on the road. 

I don’t see Alabama getting Oats-ball going, as Auburn will deny it in transition, in ball-screens, from the perimeter and at the rim. 

On the other end of the court, Auburn is a cut-heavy offense that scores almost primarily at the rim, generating a whopping 36 paint points per game, ranking in the 88th percentile among D-I offenses. 

Meanwhile, Alabama is among the worst college hoops defenses against cutters (1.33 PPP allowed, 338th nationally), and the Tide are closer to the D-I average as a rim defense (31 paint points per game allowed, 173rd; 1.12 at-the-rim PPP allowed, 136th). 

Betting on College Basketball?

In the last matchup, Broome obliterated Alabama’s opposing big men by scoring 25 points, snagging 14 boards and blocking five shots in 33 minutes. But he got into some foul trouble, which ultimately limited his production. 

However, I expect he and the Auburn bigs to dominate the interior on both ends of the court in the rematch. 

The solid schematic matchup should play out better in more favorable conditions, so I’m betting Auburn leverages it into a big home win, clawing its way back to the top of the SEC standings (at least for now). 

Alabama vs. Auburn pick

Auburn -4.5 (-120) at FanDuel | Play to -5 (-110)