MLB PrizePicks predictions, participant picks July 17: Sonny Grey, Grayson Rodriguez

Blissful Monday!

Whereas that is sometimes the least favourite day for a lot of, we now have 10 baseball video games on faucet to assist ease the ache of a brand new work week.

The PrizePicks foyer can usually be a tad overwhelming, so my recommendation is to choose a number of classes that you’ve got a robust grasp on and keep on with these.

My favorites are usually centered across the pitchers, in order that’s the place my picks might be coming from for tonight’s slate.

Grayson Rodriguez lower than 5.0 strikeouts

Most projection fashions and simulation fashions have Rodriguez for barely greater than 5 strikeouts tonight, however I like the opposite facet of this projection.

Whereas he does have a 27% strikeout charge this season, he additionally has a ten% stroll charge and a few potential regression coming his manner within the second half of the season.

His xERA (anticipated ERA primarily based on Statcast information) is above 6.00 and he attracts one of many worst attainable matchups.

The Dodgers are second in staff wOBA towards right-handed pitching, they draw a variety of walks and don’t strike out at a very excessive charge. 

Drew Smyly greater than 17.5 pitching outs

Smyly hasn’t been in the very best of kind over the past couple of months, however his superior metrics recommend higher outcomes transferring ahead.

He’s had somewhat little bit of unhealthy luck and a string of adverse matchups, however nonetheless owns a 4.15 xERA on the season.

Tonight he squares off towards the Nationals at residence.

It is a stable matchup on paper, as Washington is a mediocre staff towards left-handed pitching and on the season, the Nats have solely drawn walks 7.5% of the time.

The wind can be blowing in from proper tonight, which is all the time a constructive for pitchers at Wrigley Subject. 

Miles Mikolas greater than 16.5 pitching outs

Mikolas doesn’t have probably the most eye-popping statistics as a pitcher.

On the season, he owns a 4.88 xERA with a strikeout charge of solely 15%.

Nonetheless, he hardly ever offers up walks (5%) and he is likely one of the greatest at getting fast outs.

Relating to PrizePicks, we don’t want to fret about strikeouts or runs allowed, at the very least not with this projection.

Mikolas has recorded at the very least 17 outs in six of his final seven begins and now will get to face the Marlins at residence.

Miami is twenty fourth in staff wOBA towards right-handed pitching. 

Sonny Grey greater than 6.0 strikeouts

The Mariners have performed effectively this season, however they’re an offense that I like to choose on in the case of strikeout projections.

As a staff, they’ve a 25.4% strikeout charge towards right-handed pitching, which is the third-highest mark in baseball.

Grey is quietly having a stable season, posting a 3.90 xERA with a strikeout charge of 24%.

He usually pitches deep into video games, which ought to assist his strikeout possibilities this night.