Lakers vs. Nuggets sequence odds, decide: Western Convention Finals prediction

Though Denver got here away with the win, the Lakers figured some issues out down the stretch in Recreation 1, producing a late run that resulted in a shocking back-door cowl (in the event you received the closing line of +7). 

I’m hesitant to re-engage with the primary markets on the sequence (though I included the chances under), however there may be one betting angle I’m fascinated with, based mostly on the celebrity massive man matchup. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, present on the time of writing and topic to vary. 

Lakers vs. Nuggets Sequence odds

Sequence ML: Lakers (+240) vs. Nuggets (-280)

Sequence Unfold: Lakers +1.5 (-108) vs. Nuggets -1.5 (-114)

Lakers vs. Nuggets sequence predictions

Anthony Davis scored 40 factors in Recreation 1, capturing 14-for-23 from the sphere (60.9%) whereas drawing 11 free throw makes an attempt (and making all 11). 

But, Jokic remains to be a (-210) favourite to be the sequence level chief, and we will catch Davis at over 4-to-1 in the identical market.

Whereas Jokic dropped 34 factors on comparable capturing splits, the FanDuel line nonetheless doesn’t make sense – Jokic and Davis ought to have coin-flip odds on the minimal. 

For starters, Recreation 1 wasn’t a fluke. ShotQuality tasks what number of factors a participant ought to rating in a recreation based mostly on the standard of the shot taken and (concurrently) allowed by the protection. 

SQ projected Davis for 33 factors in Recreation 1 and Jokic for 27. 

Moreover, Davis has all the time cooked Jokic of their matchups. 

Per NBA.com’s matchup stats, Davis matched up with Jokic for 22 minutes in the course of the common season, dropping 37 factors on 16-for-25 capturing.

Additionally, Davis shot solely 1-for-7 from 3 in these minutes, proving some constructive regression could also be coming. 

Davis matched up with Jokic for 9 minutes in Recreation 1, dropping 20 factors on 8-for-10 capturing. 

Davis can rating on Jokic. He’s persistently confirmed it. 

Conversely, Jokic has had comparable outcomes in opposition to Davis however equally doesn’t suggest Jokic must be a 2-to-1 favourite. 

The Nuggets additionally anticipate Jokic to be the offense’s distributor. Jokic is not going to power a shot, as an alternative opting to seek out the open shooter or back-door cutter. 

In the meantime, LeBron James handles these duties for the Lakers.

Davis is requested to be a pure scoring presence on offense, which explains why he ended with six extra pictures than Jokic in Recreation 1. 

Finally, Davis can rating at a comparable stage to Jokic and can probably get extra pictures.

The largest fear is that Davis has his typical letdown recreation, however I’m prepared to take that threat on this market at (+410) odds, particularly contemplating my man has a six-point headstart. 

Lakers vs. Nuggets Sequence Choose

Sequence High Factors Scorer – Anthony Davis (+410, FanDuel)