MLB futures odds, predictions: Can Fernando Tatis Jr. win NL MVP award?

Two years in the past, Fernando Tatis Jr. was a 22-year-old celebrity with future MVP written throughout him.

He already had two top-five finishes in simply three seasons with the Padres, and he was making his case because the face {of professional} baseball after signing one of many greatest contracts in MLB historical past. 

He hasn’t performed a big-league recreation since, with accidents and a subsequent 80-game PED suspension wiping out his total 2022 marketing campaign and the primary 20 video games of this season.

He’ll make his long-awaited return on Thursday, and oddsmakers at BetMGM have excessive hopes for “El Niño” — dealing him on the eighth-shortest odds (16/1) to win NL MVP regardless of the late begin.

It will be an almost unprecedented feat amid uncommon circumstances.

However is it price a guess, anyway?

We’ve already seen Tatis put up MVP-level numbers in a shortened pattern: in 2021, he performed in simply 130 video games and nonetheless led the NL in residence runs (42) and fWAR (7.2) to earn a third-place end in MVP balloting.

That got here on the heels of a powerful first two seasons, when he mixed for 39 residence runs and 27 stolen bases with a .301 common and .956 OPS in 143 video games.

He’s been scorching to begin this yr, too, even when not on the major-league stage.

In eight video games in Triple-A El Paso, Tatis slashed .515/.590/1.212 with seven homers and two stolen bases in simply 39 plate appearances.

When you could also be tempted to shrug at these numbers, think about that the majority gamers come again from a prolonged absence rehab within the minors, and so they don’t all submit the kind of jaw-dropping performances that we noticed from the short-lived Chihuahuas star.

Projection fashions are a bit finicky with Tatis — whose anticipated video games performed in 2023 are all around the board — however all of them agree on one factor: the San Diego star ought to be one of many two best gamers within the NL on a per-game foundation, and he’ll be simply three weeks behind the competitors upon Thursday’s season debut.

The one participant with related rest-of-season projections is teammate Juan Soto, who opened because the clear NL MVP favourite at BetMGM (+550) however is dealing at 15/1 amid one of many worst begins of his profession.

He certainly received’t hit under .200 by season’s finish, but even when his ultimate stat line outpaces Tatis, his teammate’s presence within the lineup will possible be seen as a key think about his optimistic regression.

It’s an analogous story with the Padres’ season general.

Even after posting a dropping file by their first 20 video games, the Friars are nonetheless projected to win practically 90 video games at Fangraphs with a forty five.9 % probability to win their first NL West title in 17 years — simply forward of the division-rival Dodgers (38.6 %).

In the event that they do, and Tatis performs to expectation, he’d virtually actually get the lion’s share of credit score for his group’s turnaround in a historic season — a powerful narrative hook for an in any other case difficult MVP case.

That’s very true with Soto and reigning MVP runner-up Manny Machado each falling in need of expectations in Tatis’ transient absence, all whereas he tears it up within the minors.

He’ll even be main off atop this star-studded lineup for the primary time since Soto joined the fray forward of the 2022 commerce deadline.

That ought to not solely assist the standard of Tatis’ at-bats and general box-score metrics, but it surely’ll additionally assist offset the amount misplaced on the plate from his three-week hiatus.

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Even that isn’t as massive of a deal as it might appear.

Simply two years in the past, Bryce Harper received NL MVP regardless of lacking 21 video games — yet another than Tatis has missed coming into Thursday — as a result of voters merely couldn’t overlook his league-leading 1.044 OPS and .615 slugging share.

That’s the very best path ahead for Tatis, whose profession .965 OPS is the best by any NL participant since he entered the league in 2019.

Clearly, there’s threat right here, however the upside is immense for a participant who has already flirted with MVP consideration twice earlier than.

And if his scorching bat carries into Thursday and past, his considerably modest worth to win this yr’s award received’t final for lengthy.