Donald Trump’s (Sorta) Super Tuesday

President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump, made it all but official Tuesday, racking up delegates coast to coast and virtually ensuring they will be America’s major party choices for president this fall.

But while Trump was able to widen his already-massive delegate lead – largely because of Republican rules rewarding even those who win narrow state victories – rival Nikki Haley continued to nip at his heels.

The former South Carolina governor won in an upset in Vermont, her first state win of the campaign, and racked up substantial percentages of votes in other states. Many were just cosmetic successes for Haley, who wasn’t awarded delegates in the states where rules give the entire load to the candidate who wins a simple majority of the vote.

But considering that Haley has no real mathematical path to the nomination – and Republicans who cast ballots Tuesday know it – the contests were a troubling sign for Trump, revealing that he has not yet galvanized the rank and file of the party behind him ahead of what is expected to be a very close general election.

“The story we’ve seen since Iowa continues tonight,” David Plouffe, who ran Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign, said on MSNBC, referring to the 51% Trump got in the Hawkeye State.

“Donald Trump is going to be the recipient of a [large] delegate number tonight. He’s going to be the Republican nominee.” But “it shows his weakness underneath. Trump’s weakness, which we’re seeing on display, could not be more important,” Plouffe added.

Trump won Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Maine, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia, with results from Alaska and Utah yet to come. Speaking to supporters at his Mar-a-Lago estate, Trump did not revel in his victories but delivered a litany of complaints about migrants, crime, oil production and Biden, whom he called “the worst president in the history of our country.”

Biden, meanwhile, won his primaries in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Iowa, Massachusetts, Maine, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia and Vermont.

In a statement, Biden warned of another Trump term.

“If Donald Trump returns to the White House, all of this progress is at risk. He is driven by grievance and grift, focused on his own revenge and retribution, not the American people,” the president said after the polls closed in California.

“He is determined to destroy our democracy, rip away fundamental freedoms like the ability for women to make their own health care decisions, and pass another round of billions of dollars in tax cuts for the wealthy – and he’ll do or say anything to put himself in power.”

But while Biden’s victory percentages tended towards the high 80s and high 90s, Trump – a de facto incumbent as a former president – was still bothered by the face of Haley in his rear view mirror. In Virginia, Haley got 35% of the GOP primary vote and posted similar numbers in Massachusetts.

Biden had some signs of trouble as well. In liberal Massachusetts, for example, a substantial chunk of voters cast “no preference” votes, a tactic by critics of Biden’s Gaza policy to make their unhappiness known to the president. And with 81% of ballots counted, a combined one-quarter of Oklahoma voters cast ballots for lesser-known Democratic contenders, making Biden’s win there less lopsided.

But the respective protest votes are potentially more problematic for Trump than for Biden in the fall.

There is virtually zero chance Biden will lose Massachusetts or win Oklahoma in November. But Virginia and North Carolina are both battleground states, and if Trump loses some votes because Haley supporters stay home, vote third party or even cast votes for Biden, it could decide the elections in those states.

Exit polling in Virginia found that Trump continues to struggle with those favoring abortion rights and voters with college degrees, both groups Haley won handily in the Old Dominion. And in both Virginia and North Carolina, Haley won the overwhelming majority of GOP primary voters who said (37% in Virginia and 31% in North Carolina) that Trump is not fit to be president if he is convicted of a crime.

Haley has vowed to stay in the race as long as she can. It was not clear Tuesday night whether her meager delegate take would lead her to withdraw from the race. The only path to the nomination for Haley would be if Trump, indicted on 91 felony counts, sees his candidacy implode and Republicans are left scrambling for a visible alternative.

Haley had strong fundraising numbers in January and February, but it’s possible the money will dry up after Trump’s Super Tuesday wins.

Once Trump sews up the nomination – which his team expects will happen later this month – he will likely need to corral many of the voters who stuck with Haley until the end. But his chosen candidate for co-chairperson of the Republican National Committee, daughter-in-law Lara Trump, indicated this week that forgiveness was not coming soon.

“Anyone who is not on board with seeing Donald Trump as the 47th president and America-loving patriots all the way down the ticket being supported by the RNC is welcome to leave because we are not playing games,” Lara Trump said in an appearance on “Real America’s Voice.”