NFL Week 7 predictions: Picks against spread for every game

Sunday’s Giants-Commanders selection comes down to three words: Enough is enough.

OK, so that’s two words, with one of them repeated. Congrats to those who took the Under on the opening sentence.

Enough is enough is the way I’m choosing to look at this game, because as much as we devour stats and ogle trends and respect (or disrespect) analytics, football is played by people.

There’s a reason why teams can lose by 30 points one week and win the next. There’s a basis behind the notions of trap games and letdown games and sandwich games. There are outright upsets every week and unfathomable results on occasion.

The Giants come into Sunday’s game with a 1-5 record and a four-game losing streak. At home, they are 0-2 by a combined score of 64-3 (40-0 vs. the Cowboys and 24-3 vs. the Seahawks).

Thursday’s Post back page featured a photo of two Giants fans at the Seahawks game, giving the thumbs-down. It was a kinder gesture than Big Blue likely deserved. And Giants players, including Wan’Dale Robinson, a second-year player who seems to get it, told Steve Serby, “They deserve better.”

You can look at the standings and see the Commanders are 3-3. While the Giants’ megabucks quarterback Daniel Jones likely will miss the game with a neck injury, Washington’s Sam Howell is often giving off vibes of an emerging star.

Yet there are some red flags on the visitors’ rap sheet the Giants can exploit. The Commanders:

Have given up 176 points. Not only is that nine more than the Giants have allowed, it ranks tied for third-worst in the NFL.

Lost 37-3 at home to the Bills, a team the Giants came a yard from beating last week in Orchard Park.

Lost 40-20 at home to the then-winless Bears.

Rank last in sacks allowed per game at 5.7 — 0.2 worse than the Giants. Yes, think about Jones getting dropped time and again. The Commanders are even worse at protecting the quarterback.

Maybe you found a reason to pick the Giants within that list. For me it’s about desperation and pride.

Enough is enough.

The pick: Giants +3. 

Buffalo Bills (-8.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Many are looking at the Sunday afternoon forecast for Foxborough and projecting a repeat of the December 2021 meeting in Orchard Park, when the Patriots threw only three times in a 14-10 win over the Bills. But those gusts were north of 40 mph and these are expected to be around 15 mph, so not quite the same thing. 

The Bills were sluggish in all areas in their 14-9 survival against the Giants Sunday night. Their pass rushers never really got going against a battered offensive line. Perhaps that was the hangover from the previous week’s trip to London.

Prior to their loss to the Jaguars, the Bills had wins by 28, 34 and 28 points. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs should have no problems against the Patriots, while Mac Jones is 3-13 against the spread as an underdog, per VSiN’s Josh Appelbaum.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+3) over Cleveland Browns

“Letdown game” was mentioned above, and this looks to be a classic spot for the Browns to have one as they travel off an upset win over the previously undefeated 49ers. In fact, it’s only their second road game of the season (some teams already have played four). Cleveland’s defense is scary, but the Colts have scored 22 or more points in every game. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3) over Detroit Lions

Love the Lions, but they are coming in with four wins in a row and the Inner Harbor is a notoriously tough road venue. Detroit’s injury list includes two offensive linemen, their top three running backs and tight end Sam LaPorta. Some of them will play, but you don’t want to have to pass against the Ravens, who rank third in sacks.

Las Vegas Raiders (-3) over CHICAGO BEARS

First I’d like to thank the Raiders, particularly Maxx Crosby, for last week’s miracle Lock of the Week win. True, the Raiders have a daunting injury report that includes Crosby, Jimmy Garoppolo and Davante Adams, but that’s preferable to having to rely on Tyson Bagent from Shepherd U. 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta started the season with four home games and a neutral-sight contest in London among the first six. Their one true road outing was a 20-6 loss at Detroit. Figuring the veteran Bucs defense will have the answers for Atlanta’s young playmakers.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

The first time I ever won more than $100 on a football game was in Super Bowl XIV when the Steelers, 10.5-point favorites, beat the Rams 31-19 on fourth-quarter touchdowns by John Stallworth and Franco Harris. Yes, I realize that has nothing to do with this game. This does: The Steelers are coming in healthy off a bye while the Rams will be without top running back Kyren Williams.

Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

You never want to get fooled by the injury report, but Seattle’s sheet lists all five starting offensive linemen plus top WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. If even some of that pans out, I’ll take my chances that Josh Dobbs can stay within the large number after the Cardinals have lost their last three by 19, 14 and 17.

Green Bay Packers (-1) over DENVER BRONCOS

Remember the “sandwich game” from above, well the Broncos are facing the Packers between two games against the AFC West blood-rival Chiefs. The Packers are coming in off a bye. When you back young quarterbacks with good coaches (Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur qualify), there’s always a chance to benefit from some rapid improvement.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-5.5) over Los Angeles Chargers

Rough scheduling spot for the Chargers, who travel after losing Monday night to the Cowboys, while the Chiefs have been resting since last Thursday. KC’s starting lineup is completely healthy on both sides of the ball.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-2.5) over Miami Dolphins

For two top teams, these sure have a lot of question marks. The Dolphins have wins against four of the worst teams in the league and got smacked around by their one truly strong opponent, the Bills. The Eagles have some key injuries and were looking a little sluggish even before their first loss to the Jets. This pick’s about a bounce-back for Philly, whose defensive line and Haason Reddick will harass Tua Tagovailoa and not allow the Dolphins to run their usual track meet. 

Betting on the NFL?

Monday

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Like the Eagles, the 49ers are coming off their first loss — in Cleveland. Brock Purdy found that not having Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel spoils the joyride quite a bit, and those two might be out again. The spread’s uncomfortably large, too. But there’s also this: The Vikings’ two wins are against the 0-6 Panthers and 1-5 Bears, and if you’re respecting the injury report, Minnesota is missing its best player, WR Justin Jefferson.

Best bets: Bills, Buccaneers, Packers
Lock of the week: Bills (Locks 2-4 in 2023)
Last week: 6-9 overall, 3-0 Best Bets
Thursday: Saints (L)