2024 Waste Management picks, best long shot bets for the Phoenix Open

The Waste Management Phoenix Open’s reputation as the “Fifth Major” on the golf calendar is well-earned.

Not only is TPC Scottsdale a challenging course with a ton of personality, but the field for the WMPO is always one of the deepest of the season, thanks to its place on the calendar and the purse.

Adding even more intrigue to this year’s Phoenix Open is that we’ve seen five consecutive triple-digit winners to start the 2024 PGA Tour season.

TPC Scottsdale hasn’t exactly been a happy hunting ground for longshots in the recent past, but with the way this year has started, nothing is out of the question.

Scottie Scheffler is the clear, consensus pre-tournament favorite at +450. The World No. 1 has won the last two iterations of the Waste Management Phoenix Open, shooting a combined 35-under par in those two victories.

Justin Thomas (+1000) has shown signs of a bounce-back year and finds himself as the second-favorite, just ahead of Max Homa (+1600), Sam Burns (+1800) and Jordan Spieth (+1800).

Byeong-hun An has seen his odds crater from +5000 at open to +2500. The South Korean has found some terrific form of late and bettors have taken notice.  

It’s usually the big names that take down Waste Management, but we’ll still try to find some value at decent numbers before the party gets started in Scottsdale.

Waste Management Phoenix Open 

Hideki Matsuyama (+5000, BetMGM)

There’s been nothing noteworthy out of Hideki Matsuyama to start the 2024 PGA Tour season, but it’s really hard to pass on him when his price drifts into this range.

Matsuyama is coming off a T71 finish in the weather-shortened Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but he was T13 the previous week at the Farmers Insurance Open and finished T30 at the Sony Open two weeks before that.

So, while none of these results will jump off the page, they also are not discouraging and have kept Matsuyama off the radar ahead of an event that he’s won twice (2016, 2017).

Denny McCarthy (+9000, FanDuel)

There was a time not too long ago when bettors were lining up to bet Denny McCarthy and for good reason.

The smooth-putting American came out of the gates hot in the 2022-2023 wraparound season and wound up finishing inside the top-25 in half of the 30 events he played.

McCarthy also racked up eight top-10’s and a runner-up finish at the Memorial, which is another non-major with an elite field.

McCarthy’s putter always makes him interesting and I’m happy to buy in on him now that the hype has subsided.