2023 NFL predictions: Sam Howell could win MVP in breakout Commanders campaign
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Bear in mind Sam Howell?
He’s the previous North Carolina quarterback who threw for over 10,000 yards and 90 touchdowns over three years in Chapel Hill.
He was chosen within the fifth spherical of the 2022 NFL draft.
Effectively, that man was simply named QB1 for the Washington Commanders within the upcoming season.
It was broadly thought that Howell would win the job, as new proprietor Josh Harris, new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and returning head coach Ron Rivera wished to usher in a brand new period.
Though he could have earned the beginning job, Howell was electrical in preseason motion.
Given the information, it was a very good time to have a look at the state of the Washington Commanders within the betting markets.
How’s the roster shaping up? Are they overvalued or undervalued by Vegas?
Washington Commanders Betting Odds
Right here’s the place the Commanders stand within the main futures markets, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
| Tremendous Bowl Odds | +6500 |
| Division Odds | +1300 |
| Win Whole | 6.5 (+100/-122) |
Washington is broadly picked to complete final within the NFC East, and so they’re as excessive as 80-to-1 to win the Tremendous Bowl at some books.
Right here’s the place Howell stands within the main futures markets, additionally courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
| MVP | +10000 |
| Season Passing Yards | 3075.5 (-112/-112) |
| Season Passing Touchdowns | 17.5 (-112/-112) |
Oddsmakers are giving the Commanders no shot of creating noise this 12 months.
What do we predict?
Washington Commanders picks
It sounds counterintuitive, however it may not matter what occurs on the sector this 12 months in Washington.
Followers are so completely happy to be completed with the Dan Snyder period, and so they’re simply trying to transfer on.
That mentioned, the long run is surprisingly brilliant in DC. Followers ought to be excited concerning the group.
The Commanders have an ideal younger core.
On offense, the broad receiver trio of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel will produce explosive performs for years.
On protection, the Commanders boast a quartet of former first-round picks on the defensive position: Chase Younger, Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen.
First-round decide cornerback Emmanuel Forbes gives younger upside within the secondary, and he’s an actual ballhawk. He and veteran Kendall Fuller may kind a harmful pass-defense duo.
Defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio’s squad boasted the third-best complete protection within the league (304.6 yards per recreation allowed), and so they completed ninth in Soccer Outsiders’ Protection-Adjusted Worth Over Common (DVOA) metric.
Any enhancements upon these numbers would place Washington’s protection among the many NFL’s greatest.
The important thing for Washington this 12 months might be on offense – how rapidly may this unit click on?
Bringing in Bieniemy was among the finest coordinator hires any group made within the offseason.
The offenses he in-built Kansas Metropolis have been unimaginable, though having Patrick Mahomes makes any coach’s job simple.
Bieniemy will tread frivolously with Howell.
Anticipate Washington to run plenty of run-pass choices with quick and intermediate throws, leaning on the younger broad receiver trio and the working again duo of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson.
The Commanders introduced in two veteran offensive linemen throughout free company, Andrew Wylie and Nick Gates, so line play ought to enhance. Defending Howell might be key to his growth.
On paper, Howell has the help workers wanted to be an average-to-quality quarterback, however can he reward the group’s religion?
It’s plenty of stress for a first-year quarterback with a brand new offensive coordinator, particularly when he has solely 19 NFL move makes an attempt.
Bear in mind, Howell was pegged as a future first-round decide after his sophomore 12 months. Accidents plagued North Carolina in his junior 12 months, destroying his manufacturing and ruining his draft inventory.
Howell has a first-round decide upside.
Nonetheless, his athleticism may save him. He ran for over 800 yards and 11 touchdowns in his last season with the Tar Heels.
I don’t assume Howell and the offense escape sufficient to make this group a real contender, particularly in Bieniemy’s first season.
Nonetheless, the protection provides this group a particularly excessive flooring, and the offense tasks to enhance because the season progresses.
The schedule is hard, however the Commanders received fortunate within the schedule-making lottery, as they’ve probably the most web relaxation days within the NFL (+12).
So, why not take a shot with the win complete?
Aaron Schatz’s DVOA projections peg Washington for 7.6 wins within the upcoming season, which locations some worth on the Over 6.5 Wins accessible out there.
If the Commanders lean on their protection whereas Bienemy builds an offense that protects Howell’s inexperience – RPO and choice calls specializing in short-to-intermediate positive aspects – I may see this group grinding out seven wins. Bienemy could have the additional relaxation to design optimum recreation plans weekly.
If I’m incorrect, count on extra upheaval within the offseason.
Rivera probably might be fired, and the group will transfer on with Bienemy as the long run head coach.
The play: Washington Commanders Over 6.5 (+100) at FanDuel Sportsbook
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