2023 NFL Predictions: How many games will the Giants win this season?

The Giants did nothing however exceed expectations final season.

Brian Daboll was masterful. He coaxed probably the most out of Daniel Jones and a bunch of weak pass catchers, and no person was higher at making in-game changes. 

Furthermore, Daboll and defensive coordinator Wink Martindale survived an onslaught of accidents in the secondary. 

I feel Daboll might be one of many league’s greatest head coaches, and I think about he’ll be capable of overachieve year-in and year-out. 

Sadly, I doubt he’ll obtain Vegas’ expectations this yr. 

Vegas oddsmakers have set the Giants’ win whole at 7.5, and I’m betting they fall quick. 

The Giants completed final yr with 9 wins and a playoff victory. 

However how a lot luck did it take to perform that? 

Lots. 

The Giants have been an impressive 8-4-1 in one-score video games, producing shut victories due to a +8 turnover differential in one-score video games.

One-score video games and turnover differential are extremely variable and never predictive of future outcomes. As an alternative, we will anticipate the Giants’ shut recreation and turnover luck to regress to the imply.

One other high-variance metric used to undertaking regression is red-zone efficiency. The Giants have been among the many greatest groups within the NFL in red-zone conversion charges on offense and protection. We are able to and may anticipate regression in each areas. 

Let’s take a look at extra predictive metrics.

Betting on the NFL?

The Giants completed final season with a detrimental level differential and a detrimental mark in Soccer Outsiders’ DVOA metric. The Giants had the fifth-highest time of possession whereas trailing final season. 

By these numbers, the Giants have been a below-average staff and may undertaking as one in 2023. 

The flip facet to this argument is that Daboll and his workers are adequate coaches to persistently exceed expectations by performing in high-leverage conditions. 

However I discover it laborious to consider the Giants will re-create final season’s magic, given they didn’t make many roster upgrades (exterior of tight end Darren Waller) and can face a considerably more durable schedule. 

By Soccer Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the 2023 Giants will face the fifth-toughest schedule within the NFL. Warren Sharp of Sharp Soccer Evaluation initiatives that the Giants will face the hardest set of defenses, together with 9 video games towards top-nine go defenses from final season (Eagles twice, Cowboys twice, Patriots, 49ers, Jets, Saints, Payments). 

The Giants went 2-7 towards groups with a profitable document final season, so the projected improve in energy of schedule doesn’t bode effectively.

The schedule additionally acquired more durable situationally. 

The Giants play three video games on “Monday Evening Soccer,” that means they’ll play three video games on a brief week. In addition they play 4 video games in a five-week stretch the place their opponents have over six days of relaxation. 

The Giants are twenty eighth within the NFL in internet relaxation days (-9). 

Soccer Outsiders initiatives the Giants for six.4 wins this yr, whereas The Motion Community’s Sean Koerner says he initiatives “a ton” of worth on Beneath 7.5 wins for the Giants. 

In the end, I feel we see the Giants regress in an enormous means in Daboll’s second yr as head coach. The Giants is not going to recreate their close-game and turnover luck, and the schedule is much too troublesome to be bullish. 

The Play: New York Giants Beneath 7.5 Wins (-115) at BetMGM