2023 Ladies’s World Cup predictions: Decide the underdog in Italy vs. South Africa

The Women’s World Cup has a repute for being chalky — particularly within the group stage – however the 2023 iteration has been a breath of recent air.

Not solely have there been an encouraging quantity of upsets from international locations just like the Philippines, New Zealand, Jamaica and Colombia, however we additionally noticed Nigeria qualify for the Spherical of 16 forward of Canada, the reigning Olympic gold medalists.

South Africa will look to put in writing its personal fairytale by punching its ticket to the knockout stage with a win over Italy on Wednesday morning (3 a.m. ET). 

Italy vs. South Africa choose

(3 a.m. ET.)

Group G regarded fairly easy.

The bookmakers had Sweden as a transparent favourite, whereas Italy was anticipated to beat Argentina within the hunt for second.

South Africa, in the meantime, was a longshot to even issue into the drama.

Issues gave the impression to be tidy after Sweden beat South Africa and Italy defeated Argentina within the opening slate of matches within the round-robin.

However then issues bought fascinating when Italy bought completely demolished by Sweden, 5-0, whereas South Africa and Argentina performed to a 2-2 draw that noticed Banyana Banyana blow a two-goal lead late within the second half.

It was the second match of the event wherein the South Africans had a late lead wiped away.

Regardless of the frustration of blowing a number of leads late in matches, South Africa would have completely signed as much as be on this place earlier than the event began.

If Banyana Banyana defeat Italy, they’re more likely to advance, as Argentina can be a giant underdog in opposition to Sweden on Wednesday (South Africa at the moment owns the tie-breaker edge over Argentina due to having extra targets scored).

And despite the fact that South Africa is a hefty worth in opposition to Italy (Banyana Banyana is at the moment +380 to tug the upset over Le Azzurre), some indicators counsel this is not going to be a simple match for the Italians. 

Not solely has South Africa had leads over each Sweden and Argentina on this event, however they’ve additionally bought a constructive anticipated purpose distinction, which suggests they’re a bit unlucky to not be sitting with a greater file by the primary two matches.

Banyana Banyana misplaced on anticipated targets, 2.3 to 1.2, of their 2-1 defeat to Sweden, however they had been terrific in opposition to Argentina, posting 2.1 anticipated targets and conceding simply 0.8.

Italy, then again, conceded 5 targets on 3.4 xG in opposition to the Swedes after edging Argentina, 1-0, in a low-event match that noticed each groups create underneath 1.0 xG.

Le Azzurre have solely created 1.0 xG throughout each matches to this point.

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Italy is the extra gifted facet on this match by a large margin, however South Africa has been significantly better than anyone anticipated on either side of the ball and may be capable of create loads of possibilities in opposition to a protection that simply bought its doorways blown off.

There’s no purpose to not again South Africa at this worth.

The Guess: South Africa +390 (FanDuel)